362 FXUS61 KCLE 171100 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 700 AM EDT Sun Mar 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough remains across the Great Lakes region. A shortwave trough will move through the flow aloft today with a weak clipper crossing the area. High pressure will build east across the area on Monday and Tuesday. The next system arrives later Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Flurries have ended and clouds are scattering out across the snowbelt. So through the rest of the morning, fair conditions expected with sunny skies. Only tweaked temperatures for first thing this morning with this early morning update. Previous discussion follows. Still have stratocumulus and a few flurries across the snowbelt, but reach of cloud deck across the lake has been shrinking. This will mark the end of these lake enhanced showers as the ridge becomes the greater influence. So, cloud cover will decrease initially this morning and be mostly clear/sunny elsewhere. Increasing clouds this afternoon accompany the upstream system. This compact shortwave and the weak surface reflection/clipper easily picked out over west-central Illinois this morning will take a track across the Ohio Valley today. Decently banded precipitation on the northeastern and northern flank of this system will reach across the our southwestern and southern counties this afternoon and evening. Timing is a bit slower than the previous forecast and have held it off until after noon for Findlay. Still going with a predominately snow forecast with a little rain possibly mixed in. But this will likely be one of those days that even though wet snowflakes are falling, nothing will be around for long with warm pavement temperatures and marginal surface air temperatures. Temperatures will be in the mid/upper 30s at precip onset, but expect these to fall back a couple/few degrees from initial evaporative cooling. All in all, it will be hard to accumulate much if at all until after dark and by that point this system will be clipping our southeast counties briefly. Precip exits during the evening and during the second half of the night we get some ridging. Feel okay without any PoPs. Lows in the 20s. Monday may end up needing slight chances and have at least added them to NW PA. Still have a trough aloft. With decent lapse rates and a bit of moisture, we may have isolated snow showers. Have highs in the mid/upper 30s with a few hitting 40 across the I-75 corridor. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The short term continues to be mostly quiet across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. High pressure building in from the west, along with some upper ridging moving into the region, will keep the area dry for Monday night through much of Wednesday. With the ridge moving in, there could be some modest warm air advection over the region so will have a forecast with temperatures slowly increasing through the period, eventually getting close to seasonal averages on Wednesday. Weak low pressure enters the region on Wednesday night and could bring a chance for some rain showers to the forecast area. Still don't have a ton of confidence in this particular system at this time, but the precipitation signal has been there for a few run so will maintain a chance pops with the cold frontal passage and any lake effect/enhancement in NE OH/NW PA. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some residual snow and rain may be impacting the snow belt areas of NE OH and NW PA on Thursday morning as a cold front and upper trough depart the region on Thursday. Very quickly, however, high pressure will build in with support from a strong upper ridge over the central CONUS and remain locked into place through the end of the week. This will allow for a dry period from Thursday afternoon to Saturday. With lots of dry air about and no notable temperature advection, will keep temperatures near normal and perhaps trending towards the 50s for the weekend with mostly sunny conditions expected over the region. Not too shabby for the 2nd last weekend of March. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/... VFR skies to start the day, but clouds will increase from the west with a weak clipper to track across OH today. This system will bring an area of light snow to the southern terminals starting this afternoon. The main swath of snow will be near and south of a line from Bowling Green to Youngstown. Have included MVFR conditions for FDY and MFD for a short amount of time. This system shift east- southeast fairly quickly this evening. Winds will be light/variable. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR conditions possible in light rain/snow Wednesday into Thursday. && .MARINE... It continues to look like a quiet week for Lake Erie. High pressure over the lower Ohio Valley tries to build in over the lake today, but a weak surface low will quickly enter this afternoon. This low may allow for winds to pick up again for a brief time from the southwest, but the flow over the lake really doesn't look impressive. High pressure returns over the Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday and will bring light and variable flow over the lake. Another weak surface low enters the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and southerly flow to 15 knots will develop over the lake with a warm front moving over the basin. This low will depart with a cold front and northwest winds will become favored on Thursday. Then, high pressure will rebuild into the region for the end of the week, bringing light flow again to the basin. No headlines expected at this time. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Oudeman NEAR TERM...Oudeman SHORT TERM...Sefcovic LONG TERM...Sefcovic AVIATION...Oudeman MARINE...Sefcovic