321 FXUS63 KFSD 161729 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1229 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Areas of fog developing along and north of I-90. Will keeping a close eye on the potential for a dense fog advisory for a few hours this morning. Other concern is a wave moving through the northern plains. Light snow showing up in southern North Dakota and should spread into our area around day break. Models are indicating that will be fighting dry air aloft, limiting the potential for ice across the southwestern half of the forecast area. Have some medium range pops for a skiff of snow mainly through the morning hours today. Surface ridge noses into the Northern Plains tonight leading to clearing across the west, while areas further east hold onto the blanket of clouds. As such, have lows slightly cooler across central South Dakota than across southwest Minnesota into northwest Iowa. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Mainly looking at a warming trend through the extended. Have raised forecast highs late next week compared to the blend, especially across the south where there is limited snow pack. The next few days look good for melting, as we warm up above freezing during the day and drop below freezing each night. The system that was potentially going to impact the region on Tuesday has shifted 150 miles south, and therefore mainly dry conditions are expected through the period. Will need to keep half an eye on a system that e is forecast to move across the central plains next weekend. Northern edge of the wave may scrape the southern half of the forecast area next Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Band of very light snow or flurries currently working thru SW MN and then perhaps into NW IA this afternoon but should stay away from the terminals. Outside of that, largely VFR to MVFR conditions with a stray IFR ceiling currently over KHON. Some indication of fog again overnight and early Sunday but confidence in impacting any one single terminal too low for any restrictive mention in the TAF at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 358 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Runoff from rainfall and snow melt over the last couple of days will maintain moderate to major flooding for most mainstem rivers south of I-90 across the area today. Main crests have worked early this morning down between Scotland and Yankton on the James, near Wakonda on the Vermillion, Akron on the Big Sioux, and between Spencer and Linn Grove on the Little Sioux. The Rock and Floyd will continue to find falling stages. The diurnal swings between above and below freezing and lack of significant precipitation will help to limit contribution of melt moisture to the flooding problems over the next few days. A few spots could see small flattening or brief rises as local moisture works into the main channels. Keep in mind that much water remains in snowpack north of I-90, and warming temperatures should again create an increasing flood threat heading through the next few weeks, greatly dependent on how any precipitation threat interacts with the melt. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BT LONG TERM...BT AVIATION...Kalin HYDROLOGY...Chapman