926 FXUS64 KLUB 161711 AAB AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1211 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019 .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Jordan && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 258 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019/ DISCUSSION... Not much in the way of change was made this morning. First item on the agenda is the slight chance of precip southwest as a modest impulse is ejected from an upper low centered over SoCal/Baja/Ariz. Lift associated with this feature is pretty weak and weakens even further after it crosses the Guadalupes, although there is a decent amount of mid level moisture evident on satellite imagery. A dry sub-cloud air mass is another negative factor. Models across the board are backing off of what was a small chance event, and we have removed the precip mention from this afternoon's forecast. Next up is a weak cold front progged to move into the forecast area Tuesday night. This front is supported by an upper trough across the central Plains. Models have begun to generate some light QPF along the front as it moves southward. This seems overdone at this time given the relatively dry air mass it is likely moving into and the displaced upper support as it separates from its parent trough. This scenario is often a bias in the models, too, especially in the transition seasons. We will hold off introducing any precipitation chances this morning. Finally, models continue to project a closed low to move across the western Conus mid to late week. The progged track of the low appears to have shifted northward some in the last 24 hours, but the trough, and thus cyclonic curvature and positive vorticity advection, is likely to extend far enough south to have a highly positive effect on thunderstorm chances, especially as the closed low should back the low level flow across Texas, with robust moisture advection likely to occur ahead of the storm. Have increased storm chances, especially Friday and Friday night. Will hold under likely category at this time, but set up is still looking quite favorable. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 01/14