468 
FXUS63 KILX 161114
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
614 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
High pressure dominates the surface weather map in the middle of
the country, centered over the southern Plains. The high pressure
ridge will keep the skies mostly sunny through today. Winds will
be out of the west/northwest and lighter than the last couple. but
those winds will help counter the sunshine and keep the high
temperatures similar to yesterday...climbing only into the mid to
upper 40s for Central IL. 

Models have been a little persistent with the introduction of a
quick wave rippling into the broad troughing aloft later tonight.
The surface reflection of that wave is already taking shape over
the extreme northern Plains. By later tonight, models develop some
precip mainly over the northern third of the state. A quick round
of snow is anticipated, with the bulk of the snowfall happening
after midnight and before dawn. Models are developing a brief
frontogenetic band setting up in northeastern portions of the
state. So far, the axis of higher snowfall is well to the north,
but again...the swath of snow will be narrow and confidence in the
location is only moderate. A lot of dry air in place will help to
erode some of the moisture. BUFKit soundings show a marked
difference in available moisture (and ice crystals aloft) between
BMI and PNT. BMI is in the few tenths range at this point, but
areas north of I-74 from GBG to BMI should keep an eye on the
forecast going into this afternoon. So far, should be less than an
inch...and warming temps in the morning over freezing should also
help melt the snow fairly quickly. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
A broad trough dominates the eastern half of the country through
the extended, keeping weak WNW flow aloft over the Midwest. The 
forecast gets much quieter, with high pressure building into the 
Plains and the Midwest. CPC Outlooks seem to be in agreement with 
higher probabilities warmer than normal. Temps are slow to 
respond into the extended...still a couple degrees below seasonal 
normals through the weekend. However, the temps remain in a slow 
warming trend into midweek. Previously, however, there was a
drying trend in the outlooks. Seems that has been eroded by the
development of another round of precip moving into midweek. A wave
dives into the broader trough aloft late Tues/Wed. The upper low
still varied in solutions among the models, with the ECMWF closing
off the low, slowing it over the mid Mississippi River Valley. The
GFS is more open, and progressive with the surface system. Either
way, pops starting to dominate Tue night and Wed in the forecast 
before drying out for the end of the week. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019
A VFR forecast with a couple of caveats. Today, light winds,
predominantly WNW. Winds becoming lighter and variable in the
overnight hours as a sfc low moves over Central IL. With that low,
a narrow band of snow sets up to the north of the PIA/BMI/CMI
terminals. Have VCSH in place for after 03Z, but may end up
needing more of a vis drop, depending on how that system evolves.
Will be quick round of snow, but the higher amount axis should
remain just to the north. If that materializes as the last few
models indicate, could end up with at least a drop to low MVFR in
the 03-09Z time frame. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...HJS