524 FXUS64 KBMX 160843 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 343 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2019 .SHORT TERM... Today and Tonight. Conditions across Central Alabama today and tonight will be dominated by surface high pressure slowly moving eastward from the southern Plains, and a weak surface ridge axis that sets up across the Tennessee Valley. This will keep surface winds out of the north to northeast, helping to reinforce the dry air at low levels. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy though, due to moist southwesterly flow aloft. A couple weak upper level waves will cross the Gulf Coast, just to our south, but do not expect any rainfall this far north. High temperatures today will be in the mid 50s north to lower 60s southeast. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Wind speeds remain a bit too high for significant or widespread frost development. Cannot rule it out in areas where the temperatures drops into the mid 30s. Will carry frost in the forecast for now. Will need to assess the need for a Frost Advisory later today. 14 .LONG TERM... Sunday through Saturday. Surface high pressure builds in across the Southeastern CONUS Sunday through early next week. The center of the surface high slides to our north by early Tuesday, so we could see some of our colder temps of the week Tuesday morning with lows in the low 30s along and north of I-20/I-22. Afternoon highs should be fairly mild most of the week. A few upper level impulses dip down from Canada, but lack of moisture return across our area will make it very difficult for any precip to develop. An upper level shortwave trough dips down into TN and brushes Northern AL as it dips further into Georgia Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Guidance suggests we could see some rain shower activity with this upper level forcing, but due to the drier air in place, I'm not sure how much coverage we'll see. The easterly/northeasterly winds ahead of the system will likely keep our moisture return cutoff, so I have kept our PoPs closer to 15- 20%. Upper level ridging builds in with the surface high pressure sliding across the Gulf States Friday through Saturday, which should lead to drier weather as we wrap up the upcoming week. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. Low level remain dry throughout the forecast, and VFR conditions are expected. Winds will remain out of the north overnight, with occasional gusts of 16-18kts. A slight turn to the north northeast Saturday mid morning is expected for most northern sites. Wind speeds of 10-12kts will continue through the day tomorrow. Mid and high clouds will stream across the area tonight and tomorrow, with cigs at 110-250kft. A weak disturbance crossing southeast Central Alabama early Saturday could bring slightly lower cigs to the area but do not expect any flight restrictions. Cannot completely rule out a passing shower at MGM or TOI, but chances are very low. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions are expected for the weekend through the beginning of next week. Minimum RH values fall into the upper 20 and lower 30 percent range this weekend, but remain above critical thresholds. Low rain chances return Wednesday, but mainly for northern locations. With saturated soils, fire weather concerns are not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 57 35 60 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Anniston 56 36 61 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 57 39 62 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 58 38 63 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Calera 57 39 62 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Auburn 59 41 63 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 60 41 65 41 65 / 0 10 0 0 0 Troy 58 42 64 42 65 / 10 10 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$