200 FXUS63 KIND 160750 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 350 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019 .UPDATE... The SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, and SHORT TERM sections have been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019 A low pressure system will bring some snow and rain to parts of central Indiana tonight into Sunday. Another system will bring mainly rain mid-week. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail. Temperatures will remain below normal until near the end of next work week, when near to above normal readings return. && .NEAR TERM...(Today) Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019 High pressure will keep the weather quiet across central Indiana today. However, satellite shows some bands of clouds moving into the area from the northwest. There has been a thinning trend to these clouds though. Will keep skies mostly sunny for much of the area today given high pressure building in and the recent trends seen on satellite. Given the expected sunshine, the blend's temperatures look reasonable. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 350 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was accepted for most items. A clipper system will move through the area later tonight into Sunday. The system looks to have decent overall forcing, but a brief period of relatively intense frontogenetical forcing will also accompany it. Moisture is looking better than before as well. The bulk of the forcing still looks to be north of central Indiana, but enough will get into the far northern forecast area to go likely category or higher PoPs late tonight into Sunday morning. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow tonight into Sunday morning. Given the aforementioned frontogenetical forcing, wouldn't be surprised to see some areas in the far north get a quick inch of snow. Across the remainder of the area, there will be some weaker forcing. There is also some uncertainty on how far south the surface low tracks. Thus, kept the blend's low PoPs over much of the remainder of the area. However, confidence is lower as there will likely be a sharp cutoff somewhere in the area as is typical with these systems. PoPs will diminish from west to east from mid-morning Sunday on, and precipitation type will change to rain as temperatures warm. Any snow cover north will melt during the day as temperatures climb into the lower 40s. The forecast area will remain in northwest flow through the remainder of the short term. A weakening upper wave will move through on Monday. The NAM looks overdone by generating rain with the system given the weakening trend, so kept the initialization's dry forecast. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2019 Models similar but have timing differences with the main weather maker with the 00z GFS on the fast side and the 00z ECMWF on the slow side of an upper system, that will move across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. The 00z looked like a reasonable compromise and thus is preferred. This system and a brief slug of deep moisture make showers a good bet for the middle of next week. Best chances look to be Wednesday. BUFKIT model soundings and thicknesses suggest some snow could mix in early Wednesday, but the bulk of the precipitation will be rain. Good confidence that Tuesday and Thursday and beyond will be dry under high pressure. Low level thermals support below normal temperatures to start off but slightly above normal temperatures late in the week, per the blend. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 16/06Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 1155 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2019 VFR will be the prevailing flight category throughout the TAF period. Meanwhile, winds will be west/southwesterly at 5 to 10 kts. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...MK AVIATION...TDUD