066 
FXUS63 KFSD 160402
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1102 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Fairly quiet night ahead with increasing clouds as another weak 
shortwave begins to drop through the Northern Plains. Winds do 
become very light overnight, and with the near surface moisture 
there could be a risk of fog, though with skies become increasingly 
cloudy think fog will be kept at bay. Low temperatures will range 
from the mid teens to lower 20s.

The aforementioned shortwave slides across the region on Saturday. 
The moisture with this system looks a little deeper than previous 
model runs, so increased pops a bit. Even so, still looking at low 
QPF, with just a dusting of snow from east central SD, southwestern 
MN and the IA Great Lakes area, mainly during the early part of the 
day. Highs will be similar to today - mainly in the 30s, nearing 40 
around Sioux City.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Still looking like a mainly dry period for next week. The best 
chance of precipitation may come on Tuesday with most models showing 
another shortwave dropping southward on a northwesterly upper level 
flow. At this point however, the better chance would remain to the 
east of our CWA. If this were to occur, thermal profiles would 
suggest that this would be in the form of rain. Only subtle 
moderation in temperatures for Sunday and Monday, then models trend 
toward more significant warming for Tuesday through Thursday when 
highs may climb into the 50s in areas to the south of Interstate 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Main concerns will be the potential for lower stratus and fog to
develop overnight. With mid level clouds arriving, fog potential
may be overdone, but went with a more pessimistic fog forecast at
HON and FSD. Lower clouds with light snow showers will be possible
in east central SD into southwest MN. MVFR ceilings will be
possible for the northeastern two-thirds including HON and FSD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...