573 FXUS63 KDLH 151406 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 906 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 906 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 Based on snowfall amounts along the south shore due to the gravity wave-enhanced snow showers, decided to issue a winter weather advisory for Iron County to give a heads up on up to 2 to 5 inches possible. Snowfall will be brief and likely over before 4 PM, but issued the advisory until 7 PM. There may be more true lake effect snow this evening as a weak wave moves across, but amounts tonight will be low, less than an inch, so do not anticipate extending the advisory in time beyond this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 502 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 Cyclonic flow over the region this morning has led to bands of snow showers across portions of the forecast area. In addition, we have a potent gravity wave that has set up over Douglas and Bayfield counties as well as out over Lake Superior. From past experience with these radar echos, we are probably looking at a quick 1 to 3 inches of snow during these early morning hours, with the snow diminishing rapidly in the 7 to 9 AM time range. However, it seem to be getting a temporary boost from a convergence/frontogenesis band that brought snow to areas farther northwest, and as that band is continuing to move east. Once it moves out we should see less intensity on the radar. Have issued an SPS for now, but will be monitoring this band to see if this intensity will sustain itself for longer, for which we may need an advisory. Elsewhere, snow showers should continue to pass through the area this morning with only very light accumulations. The strong cold air advection will bring much colder temperatures to the area, with highs only in the upper 20s to low 30s. In the cold air advection, enough low level instability should develop this afternoon for us to get snow showers this afternoon, but these should be fairly scattered and have kept pops on the low side. Tonight we shift into much drier air so that despite the cyclonic flow, we are looking at predominantly dry conditions through Saturday. A shortwave will bring snow to central Minnesota, but this should stay south of the forecast area. Lows tonight should dip into the single digits and teens. Saturday temperatures moderate slightly as the cold airmass aloft shifts to our east, and westerly winds set up over the forecast area. If we can also get some sunshine in here, that will be an additional boost to temperatures. For now have put highs in the lower 30s most locations, but would not be too surprised to see that this needs to be raised. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 502 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 The coming week looks relatively mild and quiet. The Northland will remain in northwest flow aloft for much of the period, but the origin of the air flowing down into the Northland will not be from the Arctic but rather the Pacific Ocean. Temperatures will rebound from the weekend to near or above normal by the middle of the week. A series of shortwaves moving through the region could bring light rain and snow flurries to the Northland early in the week. The weather conditions for the upcoming week look favorable for gradually melting the remaining deep snow pack. Highs will in the 40s by the middle week, yet overnight lows will still be below freezing. These weather conditions will are viewed as favorable for helping to prevent significant flooding given the deep snow pack. For the sake of avoiding substantial river flooding, hopefully similar conditions continue beyond the forecast period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 716 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 Northwest cyclonic flow will keep mainly MVFR clouds and snow showers lingering over the terminals. Expect a slow return to VFR from west to east through 00z, followed by VFR conditions after 00z this evening. Until then, expect MVFR ceilings with VFR visibilities, but the snow showers may drop to IFR for short periods of time. KBRD has already returned to VFR, but should deteriorate again in after 20z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 31 13 32 18 / 20 10 0 0 INL 28 9 32 16 / 20 10 0 10 BRD 31 10 32 18 / 20 0 10 10 HYR 33 12 33 14 / 60 30 0 10 ASX 34 16 34 17 / 90 20 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ004. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ UPDATE...JJM SHORT TERM...LE LONG TERM...Grochocinski AVIATION...LE