239 FXUS65 KBYZ 150934 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 334 AM MDT Fri Mar 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat... Pretty quite weather for the short term in weakening northwest flow. Heights will build into the weekend and allow for warmer temperatures. The biggest challenge will be forecasting high temperatures, as increasing sun angle and warmer air aloft will be battling thick snow field. Overall, do expect warming to win out gradually over time, with highs eventually reaching into the 40s for most locations by this weekend. In the immediate, winds have not really picked up much along the western foothills. Surface pressures was still lowering over southern Canada and northern Montana, and models quickly tighten the gradient this morning. Guidance has come down quite a bit this last run, so lowered winds for the morning hours. Will keep gusts up to 50 mph, then decrease late by morning. The other immediate issue is the possibility of patchy fog this morning over the east. Temperature/dewpoint spreads were within 2 degrees over the east with light winds, so can not rule fog out. Nothing forming as of yet on composite satellite images, but will keep the chance in for the morning hours. A weak shortwave slides through the area today, but was very weak with limited moisture, so kept low PoPs confined to the higher terrain. TWH .LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu... Extended forecast looks to be in good shape so no major changes were made with this issuance. Overall, weak ridging along with a split flow aloft will be over the forecast area through the period resulting in dry conditions and milder temperatures. However, a weak disturbance will move over the area Sunday afternoon into Monday bringing a chance for snow showers to the mountains. Temperatures will remain below normal to start the extended but may reach or warm slightly above normal by the middle to end of next week. Normals next week are in the upper 40s for the Billings area. However, this warm up continues to depend on how much of the current snow cover melts by then. Hooley && .AVIATION... A few mid and high level clouds will move over the forecast area today, but overall a mostly sunny day in store with VFR conditions prevailing. There could be some patchy fog east of KBIL through mid morning today resulting in some MVFR/IFR conditions at KMLS and KBHK. Surface winds will increase along the western foothills with gusts of 30-40 kts at KLVM through 18z. Hooley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 042 020/045 024/047 025/048 026/054 029/057 030/057 0/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U LVM 038 016/042 019/043 022/042 020/047 023/051 025/051 0/N 00/B 00/B 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U HDN 041 014/042 016/044 018/045 020/051 022/056 023/056 0/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U MLS 035 014/036 014/036 015/038 019/043 021/046 022/047 0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 037 014/038 015/039 016/042 021/046 022/050 025/050 0/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 032 014/035 013/035 013/037 019/041 021/043 023/043 1/B 10/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 038 016/042 018/044 021/045 021/050 024/054 025/055 0/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 10/U 00/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings