517 FXUS63 KTOP 150830 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 At 08Z, water vapor imagery showed a trough pushing into northeastern KS in the wake of the strong system that brought precip and very strong winds to the region during the last few days. A batch of scattered clouds was evident on satellite imagery near the trough axis very early this morning, moving quickly across northeastern KS. The upper trough and clouds will continue progressing eastward and sunny conditions will return today as surface high pressure builds into the area. Winds will also be noticeably lighter, however, some wind gusts of around 20 or 25 mph out of the northwest will be possible at times due to momentum transfer from mixing in the planetary boundary layer. Model guidance hints at slight warm air advection occurring at the 925 mb and 850 mb levels over the next 24 hours. Temperatures at 850 mb will warm from approximately -6C to around -2C between 12Z Friday and 12Z Saturday. At 925 mb, temperatures will warm from around -3C to +3C between 12Z today and 00Z Saturday. Highs today will be in the upper 40s in east central KS and a touch cooler in north central KS, but temperatures should warm nicely for the rest of the weekend with continued WAA. Tranquil conditions are expected overnight with the surface ridge positioned over the central US. Lows will dip to near 30 degrees under clear skies with light winds. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019 Saturday night through Monday, a broad upper level trough across the eastern US will slowly shift eastward into the western Atlantic. The stronger northwesterly flow at mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will gradually shift east of the Plains on Monday. A mid level perturbation embedded in the northwestelry flow aloft will dig southeast from the northern plain into the southern Great Lakes States Saturday night into Sunday. The resulting low-level CAA across the Plains will push a weak surface cold front southward across the CWA Saturday night. Highs on Sunday will be slightly cooler with lower to mid 50s and light northwesterly surface winds. A broad area of surface high pressure will build southeast across the eastern Plains and mid MS river valley Saturday night into Sunday. Northeast winds will keep highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Monday night through Tuesday night, an upper level trough across central Canada will dig southeast into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Ascent ahead of the the upper trough will cause an area of light rain and snow to develop across central NE and will push southeast into the northern counties of the CWA during the early morning hours of Tuesday. The snow should turn back to rain as temperatures warm into the 40s during the mid morning hours. I cannot rule out some light snow accumulations along the NE border. The upper trough across the Great Lakes will amplify and extend southwest into the eastern Plains late Wednesday afternoon. This may provide stronger ascent for up to a quarter inch of rainfall across northeast and east central KS Tuesday afternoon. Before the rain ends Tuesday night it may mix with snow across northeast and east central KS. Highs Tuesday afternoon will reach the lower to mid 50s. Wednesday through Friday, the upper trough across the eastern Plains and Great Lakes States will shift east as an upper level ridge across the western US shifts east across the Plains. Light westerly surface winds will warm highs on Wednesday into the mid to upper 50s An upper level trough will move onshore across southern CA and gradually shift east across the southwestern US into the high Plains by Friday. The downstream upper ridge will amplify across the Plains on Thursday and surface winds will become more southerly. Highs on Thursday will warm into the lower to mid 60s. The GFS model solution is more progressive moving the upper trough east into the Plains on Friday, and also tracks the the upper trough a bit farther north into the central Plains by Friday night. The ECMWF model is much slower moving the trough into southern high Plains late Friday. If the ECMWF model solution verifies then Thursday night into Friday will be dry. If the GFS model were to verify then there will be a chance of rain Thursday night into Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1057 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 Transition to VFR takes place with the very last bit of MVFR stratus still slow to clear the terminals overnight. Dry air works in more completely through the day. SCT cloud deck should continue to erode and winds will maintain a northwest component before calming into the late afternoon. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Teefey LONG TERM...Gargan AVIATION...Drake