368 FXUS63 KTOP 142325 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 625 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 As of 20Z Thursday afternoon the impressive midlevel low and attendant surface low have progressed into portions of central IA. The surface pressure gradient remains between 8-10 mb across the forecast area, which continues to result in sustained northwest winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-45 MPH. Otherwise, the only other impactful weather through the remainder of the short term period resides with a few sprinkles or snow flurries. Steep low level lapse rates and the remnants of the elongated midlevel trough combined with the low stratus have produced a few sprinkles across the area through the day. As the boundary layer slowly decouples through the evening, expect all sprinkles/flurries to end. Winds will gradually decrease through the night as the surface low progresses away from the CWA, weakening the surface pressure gradient. As a result expected winds to remain 10-20 MPH overnight with occasional gusts 30-35 MPH. Overnight lows will range from the upper 20s to near 30 area-wide. A pleasant Friday is anticipated across the forecast area with sunny skies and light winds. Surface ridging will overspread the area through the day, further decreasing winds by afternoon. Sunny skies will yield temperatures in the mid to upper 40s area-wide. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 Transitioning into the extended period, a quite benign weather pattern is expected across the central US with the midlevel ridge amplifying across the western CONUS. Aside from weak perturbations that may translate southeastward across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday, a predominately dry period is anticipated. In regards to the Tuesday-Wednesday precipitation chance, a weak frontal boundary will push through the area increasing precipitation chances. The predominately p-type should remain rain, although a few snowflakes are possible. Closer to normal temperatures are expected with highs predominantly in the 50s and possibly 60s by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2019 MVFR stratus slowly scatters out this evening and overnight. Winds gradually continue to lose gusts as well and maintain a northwesterly component through the period. No aviation hazards expected in the latter portion of the period. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024- 026-034>040-054>056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Baerg LONG TERM...Baerg AVIATION...Drake