472 
FXUS65 KFGZ 132211
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
311 PM MST Wed Mar 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Snow and rain showers will gradually diminish over
eastern Arizona this evening. Winds will also decrease through the
evening. Dry but continued cool weather is expected Thursday and
Friday with northeast breezes. Look for a warming trend for the 
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Cold and windy conditions are being observed across
northern Arizona this afternoon, with daytime temperatures running
15-20 degrees below mid-March averages. Some snow showers are also
continuing, mainly across northern Gila County into the White
Mountains, though some isolated showers continue near Flagstaff
and the Grand Canyon. Northwest winds have been strongest in the
Little Colorado River valley where gusts have reached 55 mph.
Elsewhere, gusts in the 30-40 mph range have been common. For
tonight, we remain in a cold north-northwest flow with below
normal overnight lows. Showers will end for most areas, though a
trailing disturbance could keep some snow showers going in the
higher terrain of far northeast AZ through the night. 

Thursday and Friday - dry but continued cool weather with well
below normal daytime highs. Winds will shift to the northeast and
become gusty, especially along and just south of higher terrain.

Saturday and Sunday - a weak low is forecast to develop over SW
Arizona though temperatures will warm to near normal. A bit of
moisture could wrap northwest into the White Mtns area and we
continue with a slight chance of showers.

Monday through Wednesday - some moisture lingers Monday with a
slight chance of rain showers over higher terrain. More unsettled
weather is possible by Wednesday as another low approaches the
west coast. 

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Isolated snow showers 
lingering until 12Z in the area north of a KGCN-KRQE line and over 
the White Mountains with associated MVFR/IFR conditions likely. 
Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Surface winds NW 10-20 kts gusting 
20-30 kts will decrease through the evening to NW 5-15 kts with 
local areas still gusting to 25 kts over and east of higher terrain. 
Winds will become N 10-15 kts after 12Z. Aviation discussion not 
updated for TAF amendments. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty northwest winds this evening will 
diminish over night and shift to a northerly breeze Thursday with 
dry and cool conditions. Friday will start cold with northerly 
breezes, but begin a warming trend through the weekend.

Saturday through Monday...The warming trend continues with easterly 
breezes each day. Expect dry conditions except for a slight chance 
of showers Saturday in southern Navajo and Apache counties. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST 
this evening FOR AZZ004-006>008-012>015-037-038-040.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR AZZ011.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR AZZ016-
017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...DB
FIRE WEATHER...DB

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff