153 FXUS64 KSHV 132136 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 436 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday night/ The aforementioned upper trough has ejected out into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle region and western Kansas. The associated sfc low also continues to strengthen over the same region, bringing blizzard conditions to the front range of the Rockies. A QLCS has developed along the trailing Pacific front, which has slowly moved across the region today. As of this moment, there has been no reports of severe wx across the region, but winds 40-45 mph have been observed across East TX/SW Arkansas/NW Louisiana. Movement of this system has slowed considerably as it tracks aross southern Arkansas and North and Central Louisiana this afternoon. Due to this, a slight potential for severe weather remains along the QLCS this evening, as shear profiles and marginal instability could provide damaging winds in possible bowing segments along the line. Still expecting the strongest convection to exit the region by late evening tonight. A Flash Flood threat still remains due to the slow movement of the line and the adequate deep layer moisture associated with this system. Also, decided to leave a Lake Wind Advisory in place until 1 am tonight, as southerly winds 15-20 mph, will continue across the region in several areas. The cold front will likely stall or washout across portions of northeast and central Louisiana this evening, which will keep scattered showers and a few thunderstorms in the forecast mainly southeast of a line from Lufkin TX, to Shreveport, to Magnolia AR. Another stronger cold front will arrive from the northwest early Thursday morning. Short-range models suggest another line of convection will develop along this front as it rapidly pushes through the region early Thursday morning. The front and associated precipitation should clear the region by lunch time tomorrow, and northwest winds will bring in much drier and cooler conditions. Overnight lows Thursday night/Friday morning will bottom out in the upper 30s north of Interstate 30, and in the low to mid 40s across the remainder of the region. /20 .LONG TERM...LONG TERM.../Friday morning through Wednesday morning/ The beginning of the period will start off with the upper trough moving out and surface high pressure building in from the west. As the weekend progresses the surface high will move east from the Texas Panhandle and center over the ArkLaTex region. The surface high shifts east as we reach the end of the period. Our area will remain under zonal flow throughout the forecast period. Temperatures will average slightly below normal through the beginning of next week with no chance of precipitation. Then, temperatures will warm to near normal late in the forecast period. /35/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019/ AVIATION... For the 13/18z TAFs, strong to severe convection will continue to move across the region during the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours along a Pacific cold front. Convection will only affect KMLU, as the boundary has already moved through the other TAF sites. A brief break will occur around 14/03z today, but more showers, and possibly a couple of thunderstorms, are expected to redevelop along the stalled frontal boundary very late in the period, mainly east of a line from KJSO to KTXK. MVFR/IFR flight conditions can be expected with the initial round of convection today. Ceilings may briefly lift into the VFR range across Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and Northeast Texas after the storms pass, but MVFR ceilings should return as moisture pools during the overnight hours and the next round of showers develop. Southeast winds will rather gusty today. Sustained speeds of 15 to 25 kts are expected, and a few sites could gust to between 30 and 35 kts. Wind should diminish slightly by 14/03z while veering to the southwest, but sustained speeds between 10 and 15 kts should be maintained. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 59 69 43 58 / 50 20 0 0 MLU 65 75 45 59 / 70 60 0 0 DEQ 54 63 37 55 / 10 10 0 0 TXK 56 65 39 56 / 10 10 0 0 ELD 61 70 42 58 / 50 40 0 0 TYR 54 65 41 56 / 10 10 0 0 GGG 57 68 41 57 / 30 10 0 0 LFK 59 70 44 59 / 50 30 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051- 059>061-070>073. LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006- 010>014-017>022. OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ 20/35