254 FXUS63 KGID 130900 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 This section will be out by 445 AM...please check back, and thanks for your patience during this very busy forecast shift. .LONG TERM...(Friday daytime through Tuesday) Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 General overview of this 5-day period: This continues to look like a mostly dry, quiet/low-impact stretch of weather, certainly most-welcome after the ongoing mid-week system gets out of here. The only official precipitation chances (and still very "iffy" at that) don't show up until the very end, during the Mon night-Tues time frame. Temperature-wise, while not truly warm (by mid-March standards), we can at least look forward to a stretch of near-normal readings Sat-Tues, following a cooler/breezier Friday (albeit not NEARLY as windy as Thursday). Very generally, highs on most days should be within a few degrees either side of 50, with lows most nights in the 20s. Changes from previous forecast: Very minimal. Temperatures very similar to previous forecast on most days, although highs for Monday were nudged up 1-3 degrees (getting them back closer to where they were 24 hrs ago). Precipitation-wise, small rain chances for Monday daytime were removed, leaving only the previously mentioned low-confidence chances for Mon night-Tuesday. General overview of large-scale pattern: Pretty much this entire time will feature northwest-flow aloft, as our region resides along the interface between broad-scale troughing over the east-northeast CONUS, and broad ridging to our west. Most of the time there are no disturbances of note passing through (hence the mainly dry forecast). However, by the aforementioned Mon night-Tues time frame, both the ECMWF/GFS depict at least some semblance of a disturbance moving in from the north or the west-northwest, thus justifying the low chances for rain/snow in that time frame. Will conclude with some brief day-to-day details... Friday-Fri night: The very back edge of energy associated with our powerhouse low pressure system moves off, paving the way for a dry and mostly sunny day. Though not NEARLY as windy as Thursday, especially the morning hours will still be noticeably breezy (sustained 15-25 MPH/gusts to around 30 MPH) before winds ease up in the afternoon. This looks to be the last several-degrees-colder-than-normal day we will see for a while, with highs only upper 30s north to mid 40s south. Saturday-Sunday (weekend): Barring some very unforeseen changes, this finally looks like a seasonably-decent and dry weekend. Skies should average mostly sunny, with near-normal high temps both days mainly a few degrees either side of 50 (except mid 50s more probable in KS Saturday). Monday-Tuesday: Don't get too caught up in the mainly 30-40 percent rain/snow chances for Mon night-Tuesday, as they honestly probably shouldn't be this high just yet. For example, the latest ECMWF is mainly dry for our CWA, with these precip chances currently driven more-so by the GFS. At any rate, this does not currently look like a major precip event by any means. Temp-wise, highs are preliminarily aimed very similar to the weekend, with most areas continuing within a few degrees either side of 50. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019 LIFR conditions (both ceiling and visibility) are expected to continue to affect both terminal areas over the coming hours. Will be seeing increasing chances of precipitation, with the first swath not too far off. Have mention of thunder at both sites. Later this morning/afternoon, a dry slot moving into the region will likely help ceilings raise at least some,before dropping back down this evening. Chance for snow mixing in will come in the final few hours of the period. Southerly winds will be increasing with time, turning more variable/northerly in the final few hours. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NEZ039>041-046>049- 060>064-072>077-082>087. Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for NEZ039>041-046>049- 061>064-073>077-084>087. Winter Storm Warning from 2 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ040- 041-047-048-062-063-075-076. High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ049-064- 077-085>087. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ049-064-077-085>087. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ039-046-060-061-072>074. High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ082>084. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday for NEZ082>084. KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ005>007-017>019. High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ007-019. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ007. High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ005-006-017-018. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ005-006. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADP LONG TERM...Pfannkuch AVIATION...ADP