287 FXUS64 KLCH 121607 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1107 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019 .UPDATE... Morning sfc analysis shows the weak frontal boundary still poised off the coast, approximately 20 to 40 NM offshore. Observations near the coast and over the coastal waters indicate patchy fog continues. Inland winds remain northeasterly to easterly at the moment, with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. A swath of drier air between 850-500 KPa is noted on KLCH 12Z sounding, and this is likely associated with a mid-level ridging over the Gulf beginning to nudge northward over the region. The combination of drier air and modest capping should help to limit rain chcs today, although an isolated sprinkle or two cannot be ruled out entirely. Main update this morning was to adjust hourly temps and dewpoints to reflect obs, as T/Td grids were running a little warmer than anticipated. Still expect winds to begin trending southeasterly through the aftn, mostly in response to lower pres developing over western TX. This will allow warmer temperatures to return later today, but uncertain that this will occur early enough to allow temps to climb quite as high as fcst so lowered max temps slightly. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019/ AVIATION... BKN/OVC MVFR ceilings of 1500-2500 feet are expected through the morning hours. Ceilings will improve to VFR during the afternoon for at least sites east of KLCH, if not all of the area TAF sites. Easterly winds will shift to southeasterly around 18Z and remain southeasterly through the rest of the forecast period. 26 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019/ DISCUSSION... Wx map shows cool front nearly stationary across the 0-20nm marine zones south of the LA/TX coast this morning. With the cooler temperatures and lower dewpoints behind the front, no fog development is occurring or expected through daybreak. Temperatures north of the front range in the mid 50s across inland SE TX/C LA to lower/mid 60s further south. Radar showing patchy light rain mainly north of our region. Cannot rule out some precipitation, but chances will be less than 20% for most of today across inland areas. The front is expected to retreat northward today as the surface low strengthens across the Central Plains tonight into Wednesday. This large and significant storm system across the Midwest will greatly intensify the southerly flow Wednesday. With this will come the cold front and increased chances of showers and thunderstorms. SPC has most of area in Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Best chances will be during the afternoon and early evening hours just ahead and along the advancing cold front. Isolated strong to damaging winds will probably be the main threat. An embedded QLCS tornado cannot be ruled out either with strong low-level shear forecast to be present across the warm sector. Lingering chances of showers and isolated thunderstorm expected across South Central Louisiana into the coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday as the front stalls. The significant surge of colder air will move through the exiting sfc and upper level low late Thursday night into Friday with a brief end to the precipitation. Another disturbance in the southwest flow aloft poised to bring back the chance of showers for Saturday, mainly across the I-10 corridor south into the Gulf, ending by Sunday. DML MARINE... A weak frontal boundary will meander just offshore through the morning. South of the boundary, light east to southeast winds can be expected, with patchy to areas of fog possible this morning into the afternoon hours. Southerly flow will increase significantly later this evening and especially for Wednesday as a significant storm system advances across the southern Plains tonight into Wednesday. Increased chances for showers and thunderstorms can be expected with the approaching cold front Wednesday. The front is expected to stall Wednesday night into Thursday, keeping elevated chances of showers and a few thunderstorms. The second and stronger cold front will move through Friday, with strong offshore flow and elevated seas. DML && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 62 76 61 / 10 10 90 80 LCH 75 65 76 65 / 10 10 80 50 LFT 76 65 79 67 / 10 10 30 60 BPT 75 66 74 63 / 10 10 90 40 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ PUBLIC...24