646 FXUS62 KCHS 112323 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 723 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will push south of the area tonight. High pressure will linger over the region Tuesday through most of the work week. Another cold front sweeps across the region Friday night. High pressure should then return by early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A slow moving cold front was draped just south of the Altamaha River early this evening. A shortwave moving through should push this front further to our south overnight. As this occurs, high pressure will expand into the region from the northwest. The main forecast concern continues to revolve around precipitation. Models have done a pretty poor job handling the rain today as coverage is a bit more extensive than anticipated. Thus, with the early evening update have updated PoPs to reflect latest radar trends. Did maintain a mention of thunder for a few hours in the locations close to the Altamaha where better instability lies. Rain should diminish from west to east late this evening as drier air works into the area with all precipitation off the coast by daybreak. Temperatures overnight will range from the upper 40s across the northern tier to the mid/upper 50s across the southern tier. These lows are expected late, as the skies begin to clear from north to south. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... The short term period is forecast to be dry with pleasant temperatures. The period will be dominated by large high pressure, building over the region on Tuesday and early Wednesday. On Thursday, the center of sfc high will shift over the western Atlantic as a cold front slides east of the Mississippi River. High temperatures on Tuesday will range near 70. Deepening return flow will begin on Wednesday and will increase on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday are forecast to range near 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Temperatures should warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees before chances of showers and/or thunderstorms develop in advance of the cold front Friday afternoon/evening. Precip chances appear greatest Friday night into early Saturday as PWATs approach 1.50- 1.70 inches along/near cold fropa. The front should then push well offshore by daybreak Saturday with cool/dry high pressure returning to the area late weekend into early next week. Once fropa occurs, temps will struggle to warm into the mid/upper 60s Saturday, then low/mid 60s Sunday and Monday afternoon. Overnight lows should also be cooler, dipping into the low/mid 40s inland to upper 40s/lower 50s near the coast Saturday night and Sunday night. && .AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z TAFs: Light rain showers are possible through the first few hours of the TAF cycle. Observations upstream show little to no impact to ceilings or visibilities, so have maintained VFR in the TAF. Skies will gradually clear after midnight. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at both CHS and SAV terminals through early Friday. Flight restrictions are possible at both terminals late Friday and Friday night due to showers and/or thunderstorms along a passing cold front. && .MARINE... The surface pressure gradient will increase overnight as high pressure builds into the area. NE winds of 10-20 kt (highest beyond 15 nm) are possible by around daybreak. Though, no marine headlines are expected. Seas will build to 2-3 ft within 20 nm and around 4 ft beyond 20 nm. Tuesday through Saturday: Building high pressure will result in gusty northeast winds, gusting into the low 20 kts. Wave heights across the outer GA waters are forecast to range around 5 ft, with 2- 4 ft across the nearshore waters. Wednesday through Thursday, winds will veer from east to southeast with speeds between 10-15 kts. Seas both days should favor values between 3-4 ft. There should be a slight wind increase Friday evening/night ahead of a cold front pushing over the coastal waters late Friday night into early Saturday. Southerly winds will likely shift to north/northwest with the passage of the cold front. However, winds/seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels during the weekend. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...DPB AVIATION... MARINE...