495 FXUS62 KFFC 111940 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 340 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... Short wave moving through the region into this evening SHOULD finally drive the persistent frontal boundary south of the forecast area as the upper-level flow turns more northwesterly in its wake. Surface ridge shifts far enough east overnight to swing low-level flow easterly ushering in more stable and somewhat drier air mass into the state Tuesday through Tuesday night. Said air mass is not particularly cold, only dropping lows back into the seasonally normal range, and along with ample sunshine Tuesday, allowing afternoon highs to remain above normal. Left thunder in the forecast for central Georgia counties into this evening as sufficient instability available for isolated to scattered deeper convection. However, due to marginal nature of the instability along with only weak forcing, chance for strong to marginally severe storms remains minimal. 20 .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... Main concerns in long term period are chances and timing of showers and whether there will be any strong/severe convection on Thurs/Fri. Pattern by Wednesday characterized by short wavelength wave-train with large upper low forecast to be located over the OK/TX Panhandle and upper ridge centered over GA/FL. Pleasant warm weather will continue as upper ridge slowly moves east. By late Thurs, clouds will increase as SWly flow aloft moves closer and light showers may affect far NW areas. 12Z model guidance continues with good agreement thru Fri as broad SW flow aloft interacts with front which slowly progresses east across the state. Highest rain chances and instability will be Thurs night and Fri with MLCAPE values approaching 500-750 J/kg. Vertical wind shear strong but not as strong as previous systems. As of this writing, appears severe weather threat will be limited Thurs night and Fri but will continue to monitor. By Sat, significant divergence in model solutions as most guidance pushes front and moisture south and east of CWA while GGEM has much slower progression and more pronounced wave behind this weeks system, moving into MS/AL Sun/Mon. 12Z GFS much slower with next wave and 12Z ECMWF only has very subtle wave progged over gulf coast. With high uncertainty beyond Friday, have left slight chance pops in for SE counties. Later shifts may want to adjust this as new information comes in. SNELSON && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... VFR conditions expected to predominate across the forecast area through the majority of this forecast period, outside of any areas of precipitation. Mixed VFR/MVFR ceilings across the southern third of the area through 00Z, including the KCSG and KMCN TAF sites. Area of widespread light to moderate showers will move across the forecast area from west to east between 18Z and 03Z. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely across the southern half of the area, but only expected to have possible impacts at the KCSG and KMCN TAF sites, generally 20Z-02Z. Winds northwest to northeast 3- 8kt. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... High. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 45 67 46 66 / 20 5 5 0 Atlanta 46 68 50 68 / 10 5 5 0 Blairsville 39 64 44 61 / 10 5 5 0 Cartersville 42 67 50 67 / 10 5 5 0 Columbus 51 74 54 74 / 30 5 5 5 Gainesville 44 64 46 63 / 10 5 5 0 Macon 50 71 50 72 / 40 5 5 0 Rome 43 67 50 68 / 5 5 5 0 Peachtree City 47 70 50 70 / 20 5 5 0 Vidalia 55 73 50 73 / 60 5 0 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....SNELSON AVIATION...20