336 
FXUS64 KLZK 111734
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1234 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.UPDATE...

Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mostly cloudy, with VFR conditions expected throughout the day.
Showers are expected to begin making their way into Arkansas 
overnight. By morning, expect MVFR conditions throughout most of 
the state and IFR conditions in the north, with lowered cloud 
layers, as the rain persists. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 534 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019)
UPDATE...

Updated to include 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the period. -RA across many
terminals this morning will exit the area to the southeast by
roughly 18z. Winds will remain largely out of the E with some 
N-S variation across area terminals. Additional -RA may build in 
from the west after 12/00z through the end of the TAF period. 

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 408 AM CDT Mon Mar 11 2019)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night

H500 pattern will continue to be dominated by a cutoff low off the
SW coast of California and riding in place across the Gulf of
Mexico. This will provide a transition from zonal to swrly flow 
over much of Arkansas. Pieces of shortwave energy aloft will 
traverse the area and provide adequate lift for precip to develop 
as they do so. Some isolated TS activity can't be ruled out 
especially across western Arkansas, but the majority of the 
convection will be seen Wednesday.

As Wednesday approaches, the cutoff low will progress
northeastward with surface ridging initially north of the area
forced eastward. This will redirect the surface flow from the
northeast today to southeasterly by Wednesday. Low level moisture
and winds will begin to increase as the pressure gradient 
tightens further and a surface low and cold front approach the 
area. Temperatures are expected to remain slightly below normal 
through the period. 

LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday

The period will begin with a large storm system over the Texas 
panhandle early Wednesday. A dome of high pressure will be over much 
of the Atlantic Coast, with Arkansas on the western extent of the 
high. Warmth/moisture will be in the process of increasing between 
these features, so instability will be somewhat meager at first.

As the day progresses, the storm system will head toward Nebraska. 
Rain will become widespread, and there will be embedded 
thunderstorms. Given a lot of clouds and a shield of precipitation, 
this should keep the atmosphere from becoming overly unstable. 
Southeast sections of the state will stay out of the rain the 
longest, so enough heating warrants at least a chance of severe 
weather in the afternoon.

Rain will be heavy at times, with a quick one to two inches possible 
in places. Localized flash flooding will be possible. Overall, the 
system will be somewhat progressive, so amounts should not get out 
of hand.

Outside of the rain/severe weather potential, it will be windy given 
a lot of energy surrounding the system and a tight pressure gradient.

A cold front associated with the system will still be around in 
eastern sections of the state on Thursday. That will keep showers 
in the forecast from Little Rock eastward.

By Friday, the front will finally clear the state, and the flow 
aloft will become northwest. Drier/cooler air will filter into the 
region.

As far as temperatures, it looks mild through Thursday, with 
readings mostly above average. Below average readings will follow, 
with subfreezing temperatures in parts of northern Arkansas Friday 
and Saturday nights.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...SHELTON