252 FXUS63 KIND 111038 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 638 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019 .UPDATE... The AVIATION Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019 High pressure will move through the Ohio Valley through Tuesday. A strong low pressure system will move through the Plains and into the western Great Lakes towards the middle of the week. High pressure is expected to move back into the area for the later parts of the week and on into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019 Dry conditions expected today as surface high pressure builds into the area from the northwest. Satellite indicates quite a bit of high level cloud over the area. Model data suggests this cloud cover should gradually thin out as the day goes by. Low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for today look good for the most part, so little if any adjustments planned. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/... Issued at 248 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019 Model data suggests upper ridging will hold across the local area through Tuesday. This ridge will get shunted off the east by Wednesday, as a strong short wave trough ejects out through the Plains. Will keep the forecast dry through Tuesday as the upper ridge passes by. Warm advection and lift will begin increasing by Tuesday night and Wednesday, although it appears the better lift will remain off to the west during those times. As a result, will go with some PoPs for Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time, it appears the highest precipitation threat will be Wednesday night. A strong level jet, possibly in excess of 70 kts, along with the approach of a weakening occlusion or dryline feature, should provide quite a bit of organized lift. Will go with high PoPs for Wednesday night. Given the expected strength of the low level jet, embedded thunder is possible. Progged low level thicknesses suggest the GFS MOS highs for Tuesday look a little warm, especially over the northeast zones. Will cut the guidance highs some in those areas. The rest of the guidance looks OK for now. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/... Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019 A little bit of everything is expected for the extended period...with a brief spring preview to start Thursday before colder conditions return for much of the rest of the period. Of greatest concern is the growing potential for high winds on Thursday across central Indiana. Intense occluding surface low over the central Plains Thursday morning will lift northeast and open up through Thursday night. The convection expected ahead of the system Wednesday night should be largely east of the region Thursday morning with only a lower chance for showers and storms warranted over eastern counties focused mainly during the first half of the day. The much bigger impact for Thursday will be the potential for strong winds as a dry slot advects into the region between the prefrontal convection and the occluded front to the west. Model soundings already have an ominous look to them for Thursday with the potential for a well mixed airmass that could extend as high as 7-8kft. Lapse rates could exceed 8-9 deg C/km as high as 700mb which would enable easy access to the 60-70kt jet present near the upper part of the boundary layer. Headlines will be needed at some point should these trends continue as confidence growing in 50-60mph peak gusts Thursday afternoon. Will highlight in the HWO at this time. The strong southwest flow ahead of the occluded front Thursday will enable the warmest day of 2019 so far across central Indiana. Nudged temperatures up from the model blend as strong mixing and potential for sunshine should allow many locations to reach 70 degrees. The occluded front will sweep across the region Thursday evening causing an abrupt end to the brief spring warmth. Temperatures will return to much cooler levels Friday with clouds and the chance for light rain as the cold pool trailing the weakening surface low tracks across the area. The rest of the extended will see cool and largely dry conditions for the region as an increasingly amplified upper flow pattern develops over the country with a ridge over the west and a trough in the east. Highs will return to the 40s for Friday through Sunday with low temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 111200Z TAF Issuance/... Issued at 638 AM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A weak upper level wave will keep more high clouds across central Indiana this morning...before mainly clear skies develop this afternoon with high pressure building in. Model soundings and RH progs show increasing levels of subsidence by tonight as the center of the high settles over the region. W/NW winds up to 10kts are expected today before becoming light and variable tonight. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAS NEAR TERM...JAS SHORT TERM...JAS LONG TERM....Ryan AVIATION...Ryan