405 FXUS64 KMEG 110232 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 932 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019 .UPDATE... A much quieter night across the Mid-South as compared to last night. Temperatures are in the low to mid 50s across the area with mid to upper level cloud cover. Latest GOES east water vapor imagery reveals a weak impulse lifting northeast across the ArkLaTex. This disturbance has resulted in mid and upper level moisture overspreading northern portions of the Mid-South. Light echoes are noted on radar, but nothing is reaching the ground yet. The column will moisten over the next several hours and scattered light rain is expected to develop across much of eastern Arkansas and Mississippi River Delta. The moisture axis is expected to shift south into north Mississippi by tomorrow morning with chances for light rain continuing throughout the day on Monday. The forecast is in great shape with no changes needed at this time. AC3 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 635 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019/ UPDATE... Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019/ DISCUSSION... A pleasant Sunday afternoon is ongoing across the Mid-South region, as temperatures have climbed into the 50s and 60s. Skies have been scattered to broken with mid to high clouds. Lower clouds are present across parts of northeast Mississippi in the vicinity of the surface front still located in that region. Meanwhile, the latest mid level analysis depicts slight SW flow aloft. The flow aloft gradually becomes more zonal tonight. A few showers will be possible across eastern Arkansas and north Mississippi beginning late tonight and continuing through late Monday afternoon as a few weak impulses embedded in the zonal flow transit the region. Otherwise, conditions will remain dry as surface high pressure settles in from the north. Monday highs will again be largely in the 50s. Slight ridging aloft will allow temperatures to warm well into the 60s for north Mississippi on Tuesday, with upper 50s elsewhere. Conditions will remain dry with some sun as high pressure remains in control. By early Wednesday the surface high exits east. Meanwhile, an amplifying trough digs across the southwestern US, quickly moving to roughly the OK and TX Panhandles on Wednesday morning. As this happens surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a deep surface low, potentially stronger than 980 hPa, moving from the Plains to the Midwest by Wednesday evening. The Mid-South will become entrenched between the high east and the strong low west, resulting in strong gradient winds over the local region. This will most likely necessitate a Wind Advisory during the day on Wednesday, when gusts could potentially exceed 30 knots. There will also be a chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong front associated with the surface low advances on the region. The strong southerly winds on Wednesday will result in the warmest temperatures of the year so far, with mid to even upper 70s possible at some locales. The warm temperatures will come to an end by early Friday when the front pushes through the region. Friday and Saturday highs will again be in the 50s. Surface high pressure settles in in its wake, keeping conditions dry for the weekend and into early next week. ZDM && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs VFR and light northeast winds to prevail through the period, under a steady stream a midlevel alto-cu and cirrostratus associated with the subtropical upper jet. Some -SHRA possible overnight and on Monday, but considering the high cloud bases and relatively dry underlying air, no significant visibility restrictions are anticipated. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$