656 FXUS61 KBTV 102143 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 543 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers will continue across the North Country this evening as the snow turns to rain for most locations. The gusty winds will soon subside as the flow turns from southeast to southwest. Some lingering upslope snow showers will remain possible overnight before a cold front comes sweeping through the region Monday afternoon. Given warm temperatures snow accumulations should be on the lighter side with only an inch or two possible. Heading into the middle of the week, the weather looks dry and quiet with warm temperatures expected. Rainfall chances will return to the North Country late Friday and into early next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 543 PM EDT Sunday...Quick early evening update to the forecast to introduce some areas of fzra/fzdz east of the Greens and across portions of the Adirondacks per surface observations and NWS employee reports. Latest NAM indicates little to no ice crystals are present in the DGZ until later this evening closer to midnight so some areas could see a light glaze of ice where temps hold below freezing, especially east of the Greens. Previous Discussion...Latest radar returns continue to show decreasing shower coverage over the North Country as dry air punches through the mid levels. This along with warm air advection is leading most areas to transition to light rain. Trends in the IR imagery continue to show the depth of the cloud layer to be decreasing rapidly. So we'll see some lingering isolated orographic showers but overall the chances for more precip are rapidly ending. The VAD wind profile from CXX shows 40kts at 925mb and 55kts at 850mb so the low level jet is in place, but now that its swinging around to the south southeast the chances for downsloping winds has come to an end. So the wind advisory has been cancelled for the rest of the evening. A summary of the gusts seen across the North Country can be found in the latest PNS. Heading into the overnight hours warm air will still push in across the region and so we'll only fall a few degrees overnight to mid 30s. The winds will continue to shift around to the southwest and secondary low level jet will start to cause some modestly gusty winds with 25 to 35 mph gusts possible. The gusty winds should relax as a cold front tracks through Monday afternoon. Monday will be interesting because there some potential for snow squalls to develop and track through the North Country. Lapse rates will be quite steep as the forecast temps in BTV should peak around 40 while at Mt Marcy temps should be in the mid teens. That instability along with an upper level shortwave should see enough lift that a band of snow showers will likely develop and drop down from north to south across north country. A quick half inch to an inch will be possible in elevations above 1000 feet but below that the boundary layer temps will be too warm to see much accumulation possible. The cold front should be fairly sharp tomorrow afternoon as our overnight lows Monday night will drop down into the teens to low 20s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 318 PM EDT Sunday...Mainly dry with near normal to slightly below normal temperatures for the middle of the week as high pressure slowly builds over the region. Ongoing cold air advection will keep clouds and scattered snow showers around Tuesday morning, but these should both decrease through the afternoon as moisture lessens. Otherwise, partly to mostly clear skies will prevail. Winds will be a bit brisk on Tuesday as well, but these too will subside as the pressure gradient relaxes. Tuesday's highs will mainly be in the upper 20s to mid 30s, followed by overnight temperatures in the single digits and teens. Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer as return flow sets up on the back side of the ridge. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 318 PM EDT Sunday...The warming trend will continue through Friday as an upper trough digs to our west and low pressure skirts up to our west, placing us under deep southwest flow. The main impact from this system will be a significant temperature rises; much of the latest guidance has temperatures in the 40s on Thursday, then peaking well into the 50s on Friday, with 60s in the realm of possibility. This combined with dewpoints in the 40s will allow for ample snowmelt. Best dynamics remain to our north and west through this timeframe, so anticipate mainly showery conditions with limited QPF until the cold front comes through later Friday into Friday night. Total precip for the event looks to be less than an inch, with the ECWMF indicating no more than a half inch across the entire region. Colder air will move in Friday night and Saturday, though temperatures will likely remain near or above freezing until Saturday night. So while the relatively light precip will help limit runoff into area waterways, the anomalously warm temperatures and prolonged above-freezing period indicate that there will be a threat of river rises possibly leading to localized ice break up and jamming. We will continue to monitor trends as the event approaches. Wrap around mountain snow showers and colder temperatures are expected for next weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 18Z Monday...Generally expect MVFR to VFR as lightly scattered rain showers continue to erode through the afternoon and overnight hours. Ceilings have largely lifted to around 3000-3500 feet and we'll see them lower to around 1500 feet in the mountain TAF locations overnight. Winds will remain gusty through around 20-22z and then expect the wind to begin to relax somewhat during the overnight hours. Southeasterly winds will shift to the southwest early in the evening and gusts will pick up again although the gusts should only be 20 to 30 mph. Outlook... Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Deal NEAR TERM...Deal/Lahiff SHORT TERM...Hastings LONG TERM...Hastings AVIATION...Deal