391 
FXUS64 KLCH 102045
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
345 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Sfc analysis this afternoon shows our meandering boundary lying
across the extreme nrn portions of the forecast area. Water vapor
imagery shows a near zonal flow aloft while the next significant
storm system continues moving ashore along the nrn CA 
coast. Regional 88Ds have again been fairly quiet today with just
a few occasional showers developing over the forecast area (mainly
the nrn portions).

In the short term, have continued the trend of slim POPs across
the forecast area tonight, particularly across the nrn zones in
the vicinity of the front. The bigger issue tonight again looks to
be fog development as sea fog develops over the near shore waters
and eventually expands inland on a weakening srly flow.
Visibilities look the lowest closer to the immediate coast as well
as around area waterways, particularly the inland lakes. Will
allow the later shifts to better refine the fog threat (i.e. the
need for another Dense Fog Advisory).

Once the fog burns off by mid-morning, tomorrow looks like a day
with a brief shot of elevated rain chances as a weak disturbance 
is progged to slip to our north while the front slips a bit
farther swd. Guidance is also advertising a brief shot of cooler
air for the extreme nrn areas behind the fropa, while another very
warm day looks on tap from I-10 swd. This activity is progged to 
move out by tomorrow night as the disturbance departs the region,
leaving behind a brief period with slim POPs (mainly wrn zones) 
as weak ridging aloft returns through Tuesday.

The next big rain event sets up with the approach/passage of the
wrn CONUS storm system, with long range models showing the
potential of the sfc boundary stalling over the sern portion of
the forecast area, leading to the possibility of heavy 
(excessive?) rains over that area.

&&

.MARINE...
A Marine Fog Advisory was issued for the near shore waters and
inland lakes/bays for the overnight hours into Monday morning as 
guidance continues to indicate the likelihood of fog development 
starting this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  57  65  56  73 /  40  50  20  20 
LCH  64  76  62  77 /  30  30  20  20 
LFT  65  78  63  76 /  30  30  20  10 
BPT  65  75  65  75 /  20  30  30  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday 
     for GMZ430-432-435.

     Dense Fog Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Monday 
     for GMZ450-452-455.

&&

$$

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