209 FXUS64 KBMX 102032 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 332 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019 .SHORT TERM... Through Tonight. A cool front has pushed south of Troy and was located near Dothan. Shower activity has been very limited so far this afternoon, mainly due to the stabilizing effects of the slightly cooler air mass north of the front. There have a few showers as far north as the I-20 corridor this afternoon, which was near a mid level trof axis. This activity will likely dissipate before sunset. Some of the models indicate enhanced shower activity along and north of the stalled out front later tonight. Therefore, will keep chance pops for the areas along and south of I-85. 58/rose .LONG TERM... Monday through Saturday. Rain chances look a little less pronounced for Monday, albeit there are chances in the south still. The upper flow regime remains southwest/west around an upper Gulf of Mexico ridge. A weak shortwave going around this ridge will allow for some shower activity and maybe a thunderstorm for Monday afternoon. Gulf upper ridging amplifies on Tuesday with more suppression over Central Alabama as an upper low digs across Western Conus. So we should thankfully have a break from rain chances from Monday night through at least Tuesday night, but more likely through much of the day Wednesday as well. Temperatures for Monday will be a tad cooler and relatively normal for mid March with ridging in place. On Tuesday and Tuesday night, we will see a warming trend as our weak cold air advection ends as surface ridging slowly weakens and shifts to the east across Eastern Conus. By Wednesday, surface ridging is kicked toward the Atlantic Seaboard as a low pressure system develops on the lee side of the Rockies and spreads northeastward. As a result, the warming trend continues for Wednesday into Thursday ahead of our next system with a warm front spreading across the state. In the upper levels, the flow becomes more southwest as an upper low over Baja moves northeast into the Central U.S. Elevated showers with some thunderstorms will return by late Wednesday into Thursday. As we move into late Thursday and Friday, more shower and thunderstorm activity is expected ahead of and along another cold front. Upper dynamics continue to look unfavorable for severe weather in Central Alabama for this system Thursday into Friday. The upper low is even more removed than yesterday's run. Instability overall will be lacking. Granted, we may have enough lift and forcing for a few thunderstorms near the front. I will continue with no severe mention at this time. Due to some model timing differences, will leave some low rain chances in for the southeast for Friday night into Saturday, but thinking is that models will likely trend drier over the next couple of days for the beginning of next weekend. Cooler air looks to moves in for next weekend behind the next frontal system with the extended models showing some cold air advection in the upper levels behind it with some northwest flow behind the front over the weekend. Surface ridging sets up over the Central U.S. with northerly flow in the lower levels as well to allow cooler readings to filter into Alabama. 08 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Discussion. --Cloudiness during the period w/ shifting wind directions, a few showers-- At 17:45Z/12:45PM, visible satellite and RADAR shows that all terminals are now behind a southeastward-moving front. The surface pressure setup behind the front is resulting in periods of variable wind direction, though a more established ~northerly flow is forecast later today/through Monday. Southwest flow aloft will maintain VFR cloudiness during the period, with instances of MVFR toward MGM-TOI where a few passing showers are possible as well. Soon after the end of this TAF period/18Z Monday, an impulse is forecast to bring increased shower activity to the region. 89^GSatterwhite && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and a few storms will be possible as a boundary pushes south during the day today. There could be a stronger storm or two generally along or south of the Interstate 85 corridor during the afternoon but activity here would be generally isolated. Drier air moves in Monday and will persist through midweek. The next storm system will move into the area Wednesday night keeping wet weather around for Thursday and into Friday. There are no fire weather concerns expected at this time due to saturated soil conditions and high relative humidity values. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 48 63 44 66 51 / 0 10 10 10 0 Anniston 50 66 46 69 52 / 10 10 10 10 0 Birmingham 51 64 47 69 54 / 0 30 10 10 0 Tuscaloosa 53 63 49 70 57 / 10 40 20 10 0 Calera 53 64 49 71 55 / 10 40 10 10 0 Auburn 55 69 50 72 54 / 30 30 10 10 0 Montgomery 59 71 52 76 57 / 30 50 20 10 0 Troy 60 73 53 76 56 / 50 50 30 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$