857 FXUS61 KCLE 101923 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 323 PM EDT Sun Mar 10 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the central Great Lakes will lift northeast into Canada tonight. High pressure filling the central and northern Plains will build into the local area Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure over southern Ontario will continue northeast through the overnight. Monday afternoon, the low will be over eastern Quebec, however another upper trough will drop southeast across the northern and eastern lakes increasing synoptic moisture into far northwest PA during the afternoon. Not really enough moisture for much precip but with the flow off the lake, will have a small chance pop in place. Otherwise will have slight chance pops in the area tonight and Monday night and go with flurries. Elsewhere, high pressure will begin building in from the southwest tonight and will continue on Monday. Satellite shows low level moisture remaining in place across northwest OH and points west across northern Indiana and nrn IL however just to the south of that line satellite shows significant breaks and the entire area is shifting northeast with the low. Initially, will continue with clouds west but through the evening will allow for a gradual decrease from the southwest. By 06z will have much of the west partly cloudy. By 12Z will continue with mostly cloudy skies northeast third and have partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Monday models show mid level moisture moving across the region in wnw flow aloft. Started to go with a more significant afternoon cloud cover but backed off to partly sunny/partly cloudy numbers given building high. Lows tonight upper 20s. Lows Monday night lower 20s. Highs Monday upper 30s to lower 40s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will dominate the region on Tuesday with light winds. A warming trend will begin on Wednesday as the high shifts east of the region. This will allow a warm front to lift northward to near Lake Erie Wednesday evening. So expect increasing moisture and warmth as the southerly winds develop. There may be some light rain with the warm front, mainly across NW Ohio, Friday afternoon and evening. The better chances of showers, maybe a few rumbles of thunder, will occur after midnight Wednesday night. Again most of the activity will be across the western half of the region. Tuesday will be a cool day with highs ranging from the lower 30s across NW PA to the lower 40s across the southwestern portion of the CWA. Warmer on Wednesday with the southerly winds increasing. Highs Wednesday afternoon should be in the 50s at most locations. Continued warm Wednesday night with lows only dipping into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Thursday looks to be the best day of the long term to see scattered showers and thunderstorms. It should also be the warmest day with most locations warming into the 60s, maybe some upper 50s across NW PA. If there ends up being breaks in the cloud cover and the convection really does remain scattered there is a chance that locations near and west of I-77 could touch 70 degrees. The occluded front will move across the region Thursday evening into Friday night with an upper level trough lingering across the Great Lakes. As the last piece of jet energy passes overhead on Friday there should be a round of showers. As the colder air arrives Friday evening the remaining rain showers will mix with or change over to snow. The upper level trough will remain across the area into Saturday night so some rain/snow showers will continue, especially across NE OH and NW PA. We dont expect to see any significant accumulations of snow but we will monitor for some light amounts across NE OH into NW PA. Cooler on Friday in the wake of the occluded front with highs ranging from the upper 40s across NW OH to the mid 50s east. the coldest air arrives Friday night and then persists into Sunday. Lows each night should be in the 20s. Highs Saturday and Sunday should be in the middle to upper 30s. && .AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/... Gusty winds will continue from the west-southwest today with sustained speeds in the low 20 knot range gusting into the 30s. Winds will slowly diminish through the afternoon but more so after 00Z. Otherwise, widespread MVFR CIGS will remain the main flight restriction. Expect this to persist through tonight far east and especially at KERI with flow off the lake. Elsewhere expect CIGS to gradually lift to VFR from the west and southwest this evening and overnight as high pressure and drier air build into the area. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in NE Ohio/NW PA Monday morning. Non-VFR possible Wednesday and again Thursday. && .MARINE... Winds still touching low end gales across the western/central portions of the lake with the eastern third still solidly in gale criteria. Will keep the gale warning going through 00Z west/central and 02Z for the east end. Since it has generally been a low end gale and only moderate pressure rises in the wake of the low we have only seen water levels on the western basin hover near the critical mark for safe navigation. Believe it will remain near these levels through 02Z before recovering so no changes to the low water advisory at this point in time. High pressure takes control of the region by Monday evening with lighter winds anticipated. The high will be east of the region on Wednesday with increasing southerly winds as a warm front attempts to move across Lake Erie by Wednesday evening. Another storm system will move to the upper Great Lakes by Thursday evening with south to southwest winds around 30 knots. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>147- 162>167. Low Water Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144- 162>164. Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ148-149-168- 169. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TK NEAR TERM...TK SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...TK MARINE...MM