736 FXUS63 KDDC 100917 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 417 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019 ...Updated short and long term discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019 The central High Plains will be under weak ridging aloft today and tonight as Saturday's storm system moves northeast through the Great Lakes region and another strong upper level low pressure system digs south along the West Coast. Only some scattered high cloudiness is expected today. Surface high pressure moving east through the area will bring light and variable winds this morning. Winds should increase some from the southeast this afternoon, especially across southwest Kansas, as pressure begins to lower in the lee of the Rockies. By late tonight, low level moisture from the southern Plains will be advecting northward into southwest and south central Kansas with lower level cloudiness spreading into the area. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2019 Low level warm moist advection continues across southwest Kansas on Monday. Sounding profiles suggest that any precipitation that occurs on Monday will be drizzle. By the time any drizzle develops, temperatures should be above freezing. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase markedly on Monday night as the atmosphere continues to moisten up and upward vertical motion gradually increases. The GFS and ECMWF are in very good agreement with the upper trough becoming negatively tilted and deepening into a strong upper low as it lifts northeast across the central High Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday. Both models show QPF amounts around 1 to 3+ inches somewhere across central or southwest Kansas with both models showing the highest amounts occurring around Tuesday night. Given the strong southerly low level moist flow into the central Plains from the Gulf of Mexico, do not doubt we will see these amounts somewhere across the forecast area. Soil moisture levels are in the 99th percentile across western and central Kansas. The ground has also been frozen to a depth of six inches at Dodge City during the recent spat of cold weather. Although the top few inches have thawed, the moist soils will not be able to absorb a lot of the upcoming rainfall so would not be surprised to see some areal and possibly some river flooding develop as a result. The models continue to hint strongly at the potential for a high wind event across western Kansas as the surface low pressure deepens rapidly as it lifts northeast through western Kansas on Wednesday. The models show 50-60 knot winds developing through the top of the mixed layer by Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday. Have used the stronger CONSMOS winds over what the Superblend developed for that time period and even that may not be enough. The models show some lingering light precipitation Wednesday evening as the upper system lifts out, this could be in the form of a light rain/snow mix as 850 mb temperatures drop below 0C. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1114 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019 Surface high pressure moving east across the central High Plains overnight into Sunday morning will bring light and variable winds to the central and southwest Kansas terminals. By the latter half of this period, southeasterly winds will increase to around 10-15 knots at DDC/GCK/LBL as the surface high continues east and pressures lower in the lee of the Rockies in advance of the next upper system. VFR conditions are expected to prevail as only some scattered high cloudiness will be streaming up over the region from the southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 49 29 46 39 / 0 0 40 80 GCK 44 27 45 37 / 0 0 40 70 EHA 50 30 50 40 / 0 10 40 60 LBL 50 31 49 41 / 0 10 40 70 HYS 44 23 45 37 / 0 0 30 80 P28 52 31 50 42 / 0 0 40 80 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gerard LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Gerard