858 FXUS64 KOUN 092044 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 244 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019 .DISCUSSION... Surface to ~9H cold advection will gradually weaken overnight through early Sunday morning, as a deep surface low moves across the Great Lakes region. The track of the most recent system has advected drier air into most of western and northern Texas, but a rather moist air mass will remain in place across southeastern Texas. Surface high pressure centered to our north and east will recirculate somewhat cooler air through about Monday, but moisture advection above 2k feet will increase Sunday afternoon into Monday. This may result in mainly light rain showers over southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. Better thermal and moisture advection by early Tuesday should result in at least scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. A strongly sheared environment and weak boundary layer instability may result in a risk of severe storms, mainly across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas by Tuesday afternoon/evening. This will certainly be dependent on precipitation trends earlier in the day. As the trough lifts across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, widespread rain and embedded storms will move across the southern Plains. Rather high PW's for early March will also result in areas of heavy rainfall amounts with a chance of some flooding. Low level shear late Tuesday into early Wednesday is also expected to be rather strong with 0-1 km values around 40-45 kts. This may result in embedded strong to severe wind gusts overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. Cooler and much drier air will advect into the region on Wednesday, as a rather strong trough/low lifts north of the southern Plains. Very breezy/windy conditions will also develop in the wake of this system. Although generous amounts of rain are anticipated, will generally lower dewpoint temperatures across parts of western Oklahoma for Wednesday afternoon. Windy and dry conditions may result in elevated fire weather conditions by Wednesday afternoon. Mainly cool days and cold nights can be expected Thursday into Saturday with little or no chance of precipitation. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 35 51 40 53 / 0 10 20 40 Hobart OK 34 49 39 51 / 0 10 20 50 Wichita Falls TX 40 50 43 54 / 0 20 30 50 Gage OK 27 51 34 48 / 0 0 10 50 Ponca City OK 31 52 36 52 / 0 0 10 30 Durant OK 42 52 45 57 / 0 20 30 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ005>008-011>013- 017>020-024>026. TX...None. && $$