065 FXUS61 KPBZ 091803 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 103 PM EST Sat Mar 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer temperatures should continue through the weekend. Rain is expected tonight with crossing low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1030am update...Main change is slowing down the timing of precipitation onset based on hi-res model and radar trends, plus increasing PoPs overnight to highlight confidence areas will see some accumulation. The risk for a period of freezing rain near ridge tops of the MD/WV, but no increase confidence at this time to warrant mention beyond current HWO. Previous Discussion... Mid and high clouds will increase through the day in warm advection ahead of an approaching shortwave. Limited rain chances to the Ohio counties late in the afternoon as the wave nears. Temperatures are expected to be near the seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... The shortwave trough is progged to cross the Upper OH Valley region tonight as low pressure tracks to the Great Lakes, pulling a warm front across the region. Increasing moisture, shortwave support, and enhanced lift with a low-mid level jet should result in widespread rain. The higher terrain areas across WV and MD could see some freezing rain in cooling SE upslope flow. Will mention this potential in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, as confidence in impacts and occurrence is limited. In addition, with the SE flow perpendicular to the terrain resulting in downsloping, and the low level jet, wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible in the Laurel Highlands. Rain should end Sunday morning as the sfc low tracks NE across Ontario and pulls a cold front across the region. A tightening pressure gradient and mixing could result in wind gusts of 35-40 mph after FROPA. Mainly dry and cooler weather is expected Sunday night through Monday night as sfc ridging builds under broad upper troughing. A weak shortwave rotating through the broad upper trough should result in increased clouds mainly N of PIT Monday, with low chances for snow showers N of I 80. Above average temperatures over the weekend should return to more seasonal levels early next week. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Building ridging ahead of an approaching Wrn CONUS trough should result in dry weather and warming temperatures through mid week. Rain chances return by late week as the trough approaches the region. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Other than some lingering low clouds along the ridges, VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon at all TAF sites, with an increase in mid and upper level clouds beginning. Rain will return ahead of a warm front tonight, with a drop to MVFR cig/vis expected at all terminals. A period of IFR visibility in heavier rain is possible, but not confident enough in timing and duration to include at this time. Low level wind shear will become a concern this evening as well, with 40-50 knot winds expected just above an inversion. Cold FROPA is expected Sunday morning, with rain coverage decreasing. Behind it, MVFR ceilings will linger for a bit, before improvement back to VFR becomes possible south of I-80 by 18Z Sunday. The low level wind shear threat will end with FROPA, but surface southwest wind gusts of around 30 knots will develop. .Outlook... Gusty wind will continue into Monday, but overall flight conditions will improve for the first half of the week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$