695 FXUS61 KBTV 090513 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 1213 AM EST Sat Mar 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain mostly clear and dry conditions across the North Country tonight, Saturday, and through the first half of Saturday night. Thereafter, low pressure tracking through the Great Lakes and an eastward extending warm front will bring a period of snow to the North Country Sunday morning, followed by spotty mixed precipitation or rain showers Sunday afternoon. Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are generally expected for Sunday morning. Also, gusty southeast winds are expected on Sunday morning, locally up to 40 mph along the western slopes of the Green Mountains and across the northern Adirondacks. Some continued snow showers are possible Sunday night into Monday, mainly across the northern mountains. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/... As of 1210 AM EST Saturday...Forecast continues to remain in good shape. A thin band of cirrus is currently crossing the international border and move over the northern half of Vermont over the next few hours. This will slow the rate at which temperatures are falling over the next few hours. Nevertheless, the forecast lows look to be in really great shape. Prior discussion... A tranquil short-term forecast with just passing thin cirrus expected. Southerly gradient flow - locally 10-15 mph in the Champlain Valley late this afternoon - gradually abates with onset of diurnal cooling cycle early this evening, and then shifts north 5-10 mph during the daylight hours Saturday as sfc high pressure builds across southern Quebec. The low-level air mass has moderated somewhat from recent days, with 2-m readings near freezing at BTV this afternoon. The moderating air mass combined with scattered high clouds will keep lows tonight a bit milder...generally 5-15F...highest across the Champlain Valley. Abundant sunshine for Saturday, but north winds result in little change in highs temperatures - up just a couple degrees and mainly in the mid 30s. PoPs NIL. && .SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 309 PM EST Friday...Positive tilt mid-level trough will shift newd across the Great Lakes late Saturday night, with associated mid-980mb sfc low tracking well west of the North Country. An eastward extending warm front will surge newd across PA and wrn/central NY between 06-12Z Sunday. During this time, we'll see a rapid increase in cloud cover across the North Country, along with developing stratiform snowfall toward daybreak from SW-NE. Moderately strong sely wind fields, with 925-850mb flow of 45-60kt, will create some orographic enhancement to the snowfall across Essex County NY, and also along the ern slopes of the Greens. Conversely, downslope conditions along the western slopes of the Greens into the Champlain Valley, and downwind of the White Mtns into far nern VT, will result in localized shadowing effects with reduced QPF. The duration of steady snowfall will be relatively brief, mainly 3-4 hrs, as mid-level drying occurs rapidly in synoptic dry slot late Sunday morning. Appears vertical temperature profiles are mainly conducive for snow during the best moisture and UVV period 10-15Z Sunday, but could see some sleet mixing in, especially across nrn NY. The resulting snowfall totals are generally 1-3"...except locally higher across Essex County NY (3-5") with expected localized orographic enhancement. The snow/sleet mix may keep totals below 1" in spots across far nrn NY into the St. Lawrence Valley. By Sunday afternoon, any remaining precipitation will be spotty in nature, but conditional probabilities of sleet/rain increase, so anything that falls in the afternoon - especially west of the Green Mtns will be a light wintry mix or rain with highs 35-40F. Highs east of the Greens generally 32-35F on Sunday afternoon. The other concern for Sunday morning will be the potential downslope winds, locally up to 40 mph along the western slopes of the Greens and into the northern Adirondack region. We'll continue to monitor for a possible wind advisory for these areas, but appears just below criteria (gusts 45+mph) based on present indications. Temperatures cool back near to slightly below freezing during Sunday night. With cyclonic mid-level flow still in place, may see some scattered snow showers redeveloping, with light snow accumulations (dusting to 1") possible across the higher elevations. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 306 PM EST Friday...In the wake of the departing low, Monday through Tuesday will be characterized by northwesterly-flow snow showers, mainly orographic in nature, but reinforced by a series of shortwaves rotating through the region. Cold air advection within broad, cyclonic flow will keep plenty of clouds around and some afternoon gusty winds amid a deeply mixed planetary boundary layer. Despite the passage of a cold front Sunday night, the post-frontal air mass lacks the arctic air that was present this past week, thus expect temperatures to remain near or above normal Monday and Tuesday. High pressure will build over the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night, bringing a period of dry weather with near-to- above normal temperatures. The one time-frame that could see below-normal temperatures will be Tuesday night, when prime radiational cooling conditions will exist over the area and allow temperatures to drop to the teens/single digits. Towards the end of the next work week, both the GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement that a vertically-stacked low pressure system will lift out of the Plains while high pressure shifts eastward off the Atlantic Coast. The net result of this pattern will be deep southwesterly flow extending from the Gulf of Mexico all the way up to New England Thursday. As such, fairly high confidence that the we'll see well above normal temperatures return Thursday through Friday of next week. The system will also spread some precipitation through the area sometime between Thursday and Friday, although exact details on precipitation type and timing have yet to be ironed out. && .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the forecast period. Light and variable winds will shift to the north between 15Z and 17Z before switching back to the south after 00Z. Skies will remain SKC through the day with a 20,000 ft deck moving into southern Vermont close to 03Z on Sunday. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite SN, Definite PL, Likely RA, Definite FZRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos/Clay SHORT TERM...Banacos LONG TERM...RSD AVIATION...Clay