894 FXUS62 KTAE 072330 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 630 PM EST Thu Mar 7 2019 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period with some mid to high level clouds and generally light winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION [245 PM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... A quiet night is expected under mostly clear skies and no rain chances. Winds turn southeast overnight which will allow warmer conditions. Low temperatures in the low 40s with mid to upper 40s along the coast. .SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]... The current dry pattern will persist through Saturday as temperatures continue to warm. However, as a shortwave sweeps a cold front over the southeast, rain chances will begin creeping into our area from the west Saturday afternoon into the evening. The highest PoPs (30%) for this period are limited to our extreme northwestern counties. High temperatures will warm from the upper 60s/low 70s to the upper 70s, while lows increase sharply from the low 50s to the low 60s. .LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]... The aforementioned cold front will enter the region late Saturday to early Sunday. The possibility of severe thunderstorms in our CWA have decreased somewhat, as 0-6km shear values seem to drop off sharply early Sunday, and don't align well with regions of higher instability. It is worth monitoring as we head into the weekend, but does not present a huge threat at this time. The cold front is expected to stall over the southeast through around midweek, before the next system approaches on Thursday. .MARINE... South to southeast winds of 10 knots and low seas of 1-2 ft will continue through Friday night. Winds and seas will increase Saturday with the approach of a cold front before calming down Sunday night into next week. A chance of rain exists over the weekend. .FIRE WEATHER... Outside of possible high dispersions on Friday and Saturday afternoons, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected. .HYDROLOGY... Rains from last week along with higher releases from the Woodruff Dam have brought the Apalachicola River at Blountstown into minor flood stage. Aside from this river, no other rivers will reach flood and no widespread rainfall will perturb rivers to the point of flood stage. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 40 71 49 75 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 47 67 57 71 64 / 0 0 0 10 30 Dothan 43 71 53 75 62 / 0 0 0 20 30 Albany 42 73 49 76 60 / 0 0 0 0 20 Valdosta 43 73 50 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 42 73 51 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 48 68 58 69 64 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Dobbs SHORT TERM...Skeen LONG TERM...Skeen AVIATION...LF MARINE...Skeen FIRE WEATHER...LN HYDROLOGY...Dobbs