021 
FXUS65 KBOI 062138
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
238 PM MST Wed Mar 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday...Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms already developing across the region ahead
of the northeastward moving shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms 
are moving quickly northeast producing brief heavy rain/snow, 
small hail and wind gusts to 40 MPH. Expect this too continue 
through this evening. The shortwave exits late tonight/early 
Thursday morning which will be followed by a slow moving cold 
front. The front will move northwest to southeast reaching the 
Boise late Thursday morning and the Western Magic Valley by 
Thursday evening. Snow level fall to the valley floors with the 
frontal passage with rain changing to snow. The best area for 
accumulating snow will be Southeast of a Rome- Mountain Home- 
Fairfield line Thursday afternoon through early Friday. At the 
moment snow amounts look to remain just below advisory but this 
event will need to be monitored. Cold breezy northwesterly winds 
and a slight chance for snow showers follows the front for Friday.
Low pressure remains over the forecast area into Saturday keeping
the threat for showers and continuing below normal temperatures. 

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Wednesday...A low pressure 
system progresses southward along the Pacific coast, drying out 
southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho before the next system 
approaches on Tuesday. Models are in fairly good agreement over a 
trough moving eastward over the region Tuesday into Wednesday, and
PoPs were raised to reflect higher confidence in precipitation 
trends. By Tuesday afternoon, snow levels will remain at the 
valley floor, keeping activity from the incoming system as 
widespread snow showers that will linger through Wednesday 
morning. Temperatures through the period will remain 5 to 10 
degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR with areas of local MVFR in low clouds and
rain showers. Mountains obscured. Snow levels 4k-5k feet MSL. 
Widespread isolated thunderstorms throughout the afternoon as 
showers continue through the night. Surface winds: southwest to 
south 5-15 kts except 10-20 kts through the Snake River Valley. 
Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: southwest 30-40 kts. 

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JDS
LONG TERM....AL 
AVIATION.....AL