459 
FXUS64 KLUB 061139 AAA
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
539 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Wind will
increase out of the southwest to between 15 to 20 knots at KLBB
and KPVW while KCDS remains out of the south between 10 to 15
knots.

Jordan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
A quiet weather day ahead as weak upper level ridging pivots east,
with filtered sunshine and afternoon winds becoming a little 
breezy, especially the farther north you go. Temperatures will 
still remain about 5 degrees cooler than normal.

Tomorrow, a surge of warm air will lift north with the southern 
jet and increased southwest surface flow as temperatures increase
about 20-25 degrees from todays high temperatures. Warm air will
remain in place for Friday though moderate somewhat, back down
into the mid-70s on the Cap Rock, cooler to the east off the
Caprock. However, some uncertainty remains in how Fridays high 
temperatures will be affected by a surge of cooler air pushing 
south across Oklahoma and North Texas. If that cold air advection
is able to work its way up onto the Caprock we may see highs
struggle to reach 70, and if the surge is more anemic than
expected we may temperatures climb into the 80s which is indicated
in some of the MOS guidance.

By late Friday, a deepening trough over the Four Corners region
will quickly sweep across New Mexico and West Texas bringing a
chance of showers and maybe some thunderstorms overnight in the
South Plains and early Saturday morning over the Rolling Plains, 
though the instability is meagher at best. Attention on rain
potential will quickly shift to some concerns about fire weather
conditions increasing as strong westerly surface winds fill in
behind the trough, peaking in the early afternoon and quickly
easing after sunset. After a couple mild overnights, Saturday
night into Sunday morning will cool to more seasonal values or
even a little below as lighter winds and clearing skies will
assist some radiational cooling effects. Clouds from the next
system, that will affect the region by early next week, will 
begin spreading over our CWA during the day Sunday. Along with
increasing clouds, cooler easterly surface winds will set in, 
helping to advect more moisture across our region for the
deepening trough to our west to tap into on Monday and Tuesday,
when we could see widespread rainfall begin to fall across our
region by late Monday night and most of the day Tuesday. Continued
with showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms as instability
for this system is thus far pretty unimpressive.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$