286 FXUS61 KAKQ 061127 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 627 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure builds back into and over the region today through tonight. High pressure slowly slides offshore Thursday into Thursday night. A warm front lifts across the local area Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 250 AM EST Wednesday... Cold front now through the FA and off the coast. Cold/dry air will continue to spread into the local area today. Gusty NW winds to 20-30 mph behind the front...expected to continue into this afternoon. Otw...mostly sunny w/ highs only from l-m30s near the coast to the l40s over scentral VA-interior NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 250 AM EST Wednesday... Cold/dry tonight as the sfc ridge axis approaches from the W...resulting in WNW lower to blo 10 mph. Lows from the upper teens (mid teens far NW) to l20s...except m20s right along the coast in SE VA-NE NC (again...not to record values). Mostly sunny and continued cool Thursday with highs in the l-m40s N and E to around 50F SW. Hi pres slowly slides offshore Thu night. Mostly SKC initially...followed by increasing clouds as WAA aloft commences. Temperatures drop into the u20s-l30s (l-m20s MD Ern Shore) late in the evening, before becoming steady as clouds increase after midnight. A warm front lifts into the region Fri. Vertical ascent is not that strong with this boundary...but some lgt pcpn is possible w/ WAA associated w/ that front. This pcpn could initially begin as lgt SN central and NW...before lgt RA by late morning and aftn. No snow accumulation is expected. Lgt RA is possible elsewhere by late Fri morning and afternoon. Highs from the l-m40s NW to the l-m50s SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 355 PM EST Tuesday... The chc of light rain will continue into Friday evening, before ending overnight as a mid-level shortwave trough slides offshore and a weak cold front drops back through the area. Low temperatures range from the low/mid 30s NW, to the low 40s SE. Dry seasonal Saturday as weak upper ridging briefly moves over the ern Conus. A strong area of low pressure tracks from the Plains to the Great Lakes from Saturday into Sunday. This will allow the cold front that stalled just south of our CWA to move back N as a warm front on Saturday night-Sun morning. The warm front will quickly surge N of the CWA by midday Sunday. Showers are expected to overspread the area from W to E Sunday. Showers with heavier rain are possible from Sunday aftn-Sunday evening as the associated cold front approaches from the WNW. Models are hinting at some sfc- based instability Sun aftn/evening from srn VA to NE NC as temperatures could warm up to near 70F (and as dew points rise to near 60F). A slight chc of thunder has been added to srn VA/NE NC (away from the coast). A drier airmass arrives late Sunday night-Monday as the cold front clears the area. The airmass behind the front initially will be relatively mild, before a secondary (but dry) cold front crosses the area Monday night bringing cooler temperatures. Highs Saturday are expected to be in the 50s to near 60F in most areas. Forecast highs on Sunday range from the low 60s N/NW to the mid-upper 60s over SE VA/NE NC. Highs still in the upper 50s-mid 60s on Monday, and then upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 625 AM EST Wednesday... VFR conditions expected through the 12Z TAF forecast period. NW winds will continue to average 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt at times into this afternoon before becoming W and waning late. Sfc hi pres will build over the FA tonight/Thu. Next lo pres system will approach the area Fri...w/ the potential for some short- lived flight restrictions Fri morning. A better chance for more widespread flight restrictions may follow w/ system crossing the region Sun. && .MARINE... As of 325 AM EST Wednesday... Arctic cold front crossed the waters earlier tonight and in its wake, winds have increased to 20 to 25 knots over a majority of the waters (minus the upper rivers). Winds are gusting to 30 knots, with gusts to 35 knots at the typical elevated locations. Already starting to see a diminishing trend in winds across the north, expect winds to continue to diminish from north to south this morning and afternoon. SCAs remain unchanged at this time, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that SCAs may need to be extended for a couple of hours into the afternoon. Offshore component of the winds has helped to keep seas from building too high, latest observations shows seas ranging in the 4 to 5 foot range. Seas may build to as high as 6 feet early this morning, especially out 20 nm. High pressure builds over the region by this afternoon allowing for much calmer conditions for the second half of the day. Benign conditions are expected through at least the first half of Friday before a weak low approaches the region. A stronger system likely impacts the region late in the weekend into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 355 PM EST Tuesday... Sebrell reaching flood stage attm...with the Flood Warning still in effect w/ the river expected to rise back above flood stage overnight and through Wed based on Sun night's rainfall. Otherwise, expect rises on most rivers over the next few days due to Sun night's rainfall. See FLSAKQ for details. && .CLIMATE... Record low temps: Wed 3/6 Thurs 3/7: RIC...15 in 1960 12 in 1960 ORF...20 in 1901 17 in 1899 SBY...13 in 1978 11 in 2015 ECG...20 in 1960 20 in 1960 Record low max temps: Wed 3/6 RIC...28 in 1901 ORF...28 in 2015 SBY...31 in 2015 ECG...34 in 2015 && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633- 638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB LONG TERM...AJZ/ERI AVIATION...ALB MARINE...AJB/RHR HYDROLOGY... CLIMATE...