396 
FXUS64 KSJT 061103
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
503 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2019

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF period. Some
breezy and gusty conditions are possible during Wednesday
afternoon. Then, for the last couple of hours in the TAF period,
some MVFR may approach the KJCT terminal. However, confidence is
low at this point and time, but this may be included in the 18Z 
or 00Z TAF package. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CST Wed Mar 6 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Cold temperatures are in place this morning leaving a chilly 
start to your Wednesday. In fact, 7 AM temperatures are largely 
expected to be in the mid 20s across most of the area. Then, a 
fairly quick warm up is in store after sunrise with high 
temperatures settling into the mid to upper 50s for this afternoon
under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be a bit breezy at around 
10 to 15 MPH and will be coming from the south. For tonight, 
temperatures are expected to remain above freezing with 
temperatures bottoming out in the upper 30s. 

LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)

No significant changes in thinking for the long term forecast. 
Thursday and Friday are still expected to be warmer for most of 
the area than the last few days, with highs in the 70s Thursday, 
and potentially warmer for parts of the area on Friday. However, 
the NAM12 is now showing a shallow, cold air mass sneaking into 
the Big Country for Friday, so have cooled highs a few degrees 
Friday for areas generally north of a Sweetwater to Brownwood 
line. Have kept the highs farther south capped lower than the 
extended MOS guidance from the GFS and ECM as we are still 
expecting a fairly thick layer of mid and upper level clouds. 
However, did keep highs in the 80s as there may be some decent 
compressional heating ahead of the cold front that is expected to 
move south into the Big Country. 

Have kept a chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday night 
into Saturday morning, although each model run has gotten drier 
over the past day or so. Precipitation will move out of the area 
Saturday, with drier and windy conditions moving in behind a 
Pacific cold front. 

Clouds will then increase again on Sunday ahead of the next upper
level system. Light showers will be possible ahead of the system 
Sunday night. Lift and moisture increases Monday into Tuesday, 
resulting in a potentially better chance for widespread 
precipitation Monday through Tuesday. Models disagree on the speed
of the system with the GFS bringing the best chance for 
precipitation into the area Monday and Tuesday, with the ECMWF 
bringing the heaviest precipitation through Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. However, the bottom line is that, for now, both models 
show a good chance for widespread precipitation sometime during 
the first half of next week. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 54  41  78  51 /   0   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 58  39  79  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Junction 	 53  40  77  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Brownwood 	 54  38  78  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 54  41  80  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 53  37  75  47 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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