396 
FXUS64 KLUB 060432
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1032 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2019

.AVIATION...
Few changes with VFR and light southeast breezes turning more
south to southwest Wednesday as surface low pressure trough 
continues taking shape in westerly flow aloft. RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2019/ 

AVIATION...
VFR with light and variable low level flow gradually becoming 
light southeast overnight as weak upper level ridge axis passes 
overhead. Modest southerly low level flow expected Wednesday as
surface low pressure trough deepens in response to westerly flow 
aloft while the upper ridge axis shifts east. RMcQueen

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CST Tue Mar 5 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Cold air hanging on across the southern High Plains today will
make a quick egress Wednesday as breezy south to southwest winds
return to the region supported in response to flat upper ridging
moving overhead. High temperatures Wednesday should push to or
above 60 degrees with another good jump in temperatures Thursday
with zonal flow aloft continuing to promote breezy southwest winds
while also transporting warm air from the Mexican plateau
northeastward. Mid to upper flow will back as we head into Friday
in response to a short wave trough that will move off the Rockies
Friday night. Low level moisture advection ahead of the trough
looks like it might be enough to fuel some convection as the
trough moves onto the Plains Friday night. Biggest question is
whether initiation occurs in the forecast area or just to the east
of it. Certainly looks like a good enough setup to run with 30/40
pct chances east of I-27. Better precip chances look to come
Tuesday of next week. Models are currently in good agreement with
a storm system moving out of Baja California on a latitude that
would be favorable for a round of widespread precipitation Tuesday
into Tuesday. Still plenty of time for divergence related to
timing and path to get too excited, but 40/50 pct rain chances are
justified at this time. Finally, there are two other items of
note. The first is a cold front that will backdoor into the
forecast area early Friday. This front looks shallow and
relatively cold and may overcome the warm air mass in place ahead
of it. This could lead to a sharp gradient in temperatures across
the forecast area. The surface skin temperature on the WRF-NAM and
ECM would support highs in the 40s in the vicinity of Childress.
Will not go that cold at this time, but it will be something to
watch. The other item is the potential for a windy day across the
area Saturday. Progged mid level height gradient would support
Wind Advisory criteria for much or all of the forecast area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A warm and breezy period will return to the area late week.
Elevated fire weather is looking likely on the Caprock, 
especially west of U.S. Highway 385 Thursday. Friday will be
dependent on the southwest progression of a cold front as
discussed above. Critical conditions are quite possible Saturday
with the relative humidity a bigger question mark than wind speed.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/05