111 FXUS62 KMFL 042340 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 640 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. There could be some patchy fog at KAPF late tonight which could bring periods of MVFR conditions during this time frame. Any fog that develops will begin to diminish after sunrise on Tuesday. Winds will increase out of the west northwest later on Tuesday morning. There is a chance of showers on Tuesday, however, the uncertainty is too high to include them in the TAFS at this point. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019/ DISCUSSION... A diffuse boundary located over Central Florida this afternoon has prompted convective development over south central Florida just north of Lake Okeechobee. With the presence of the boundary, the pinned lake breeze, and available instability due to diurnal heating, there could be some thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening around the lake. As the sun sets for the evening, convective activity should diminish and focus mainly over the warmer waters. Available surface moisture, light flow, and the potential for efficient radiational cooling could lead to low stratus/fog development over portions of southern Florida, with a focus along inland Southwest Florida, overnight into the morning. If the wind decouples enough to allow fog development at the surface, then fog coverage and resulting lowered visibility due to density could require adjustments to the current forecast. If the wind does not decouple completely, the low level moisture may manifest itself as low stratus instead of fog. Since the current forecast has wind not completely decoupling, went with mention of cloud cover and some patches of fog. On Tuesday, a reinforcing boundary will be propelled by a mid- level trough which could bring some additional rain chances for southern Florida. The chances of thunderstorms are not zero and should be monitored but the increased cloud cover may help limit some instability on Tuesday. The front will push through the state into the Atlantic waters and Florida Straits by Wednesday, allowing drier and cooler air to advect into southern Florida. Wednesday and Thursday mornings will be our chilliest in this next 7 day period, with some portions of inland Southwest Florida reaching into the 40s. Moderation of the air mass returns by Friday as the surface high slides east into the Atlantic, cutting off the northerly flow and allowing a flow off the Atlantic waters to return across southern Florida. Temperatures and moisture will rebound into the weekend, though the somewhat zonal flow aloft and the strength of the ridge of high pressure over the area appears to be sufficient to keep the next couple of weekend disturbances north of our area. Near the end of the extended period, a weak front may be able to take advantage of the retreating high pressure area and push into the peninsula of Florida. There is still quite some uncertainty beyond Friday, so forecast confidence for the end of the forecast period is somewhat lower than normal. MARINE... A front will push through the region by early Wednesday, which will bring increasing winds and building seas which could be hazardous to small craft mid to late in the week. A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for Wednesday into Thursday. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1246 PM EST Mon Mar 4 2019/ AVIATION... A cold front weakening across the Lake today will keep SHRA to a minimum with KPBI having the highest chance for SHRA/TSRA. However, there is too much uncertainty to include in KPBI TAF at this time. There is a concern for FG/BR tonight across the region, but again, not enough confidence to mention. Regardless, will keep an eye on wx pattern and make any amendments when necessary. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast through this evening with MVFR cigs advecting into region across all TAF sites by midday tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... West Palm Beach 66 80 52 68 / 20 30 20 0 Fort Lauderdale 69 83 56 72 / 0 40 20 0 Miami 69 84 57 73 / 0 30 20 0 Naples 67 76 51 71 / 10 20 10 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && AVIATION...55/CWC