113 FXUS61 KALY 041132 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 632 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... As a storm departs the region, skies will be clearing this morning with a chilly and breezy afternoon. Temperatures will be below normal for much of the week, with some lake effect snow showers impacting western parts of the area. The next chance for widespread precipitation won't be until the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 632 AM EST...Surface low pressure is located south of southern New England and continues to lift northeast. Steady snowfall has ended across our area as the storm is quickly departing and just one lingering batch of light snow showers and flurries continues across southern Vermont. Little to no additional snow accumulation is expected this morning as this activity continues to slide eastward. All winter weather headlines have been dropped, but roads and sidewalks may still remain slippery from the overnight snow, so caution is still urged to be taken this morning. Behind the storm system, clouds will be decreasing for this morning, as cold advection quickly sets in behind the departing storm system. With colder air working in aloft, decent mixing should allow for some gusty winds this afternoon, with northwest winds gusting as high as 25 mph. Temps will probably reach highs of the mid 20s to mid 30s by early this afternoon within the good mixing, but should start to fall by later this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Over the short term period, an upper level trough will be located over the Northeast. This will allow for below normal temperatures and a persistent cyclonic flow, which will promote the development of lake effect snow showers. Tonight into Tuesday, the persistent west to southwest flow aloft will allow a band of lake effect snow to develop off Lake Ontario. Although the heaviest activity will be occurring west of the region, some on and off snow showers will impacting western parts of the area. Initially, some snow showers may make it into the western Mohawk Valley (although any accumulation should be under an inch) this evening before lifting northward towards the western Adirondacks. Best chance for lake effect looks to be late tonight into early Tuesday morning across our area where the flow will be best aligned over the long axis of the lake, with snow showers looking to impact areas to the north of Old Forge and Route 28. Even up there, just an inch or two is expected, as the best accumulation will be located over the Tug Hill to the west. Outside of lake effect, it will be partly to mostly clear for tonight and cold, with lows in the single digits. With a little breeze still in place, wind chill values will be near zero for many areas late tonight. Although skies will start off mostly clear on Tuesday, clouds will gradually increase through the day as the upper level trough axis starts to approach. Although moisture will be limited, some snow showers or flurries are possible across much of the area, as the trough axis moves through the area. Best chance will be across northern, western and high terrain areas, as lake enhancement and upslope flow will help aid in the chance of some seeing some passing light snow showers. Behind the trough axis, lake effect snow will be re established for Tuesday night into Wednesday. While there could be some heavier bursts within this band across our western areas, it looks to be moving quickly from the western Adirondacks southward across the Mohawk Valley. It's even possible some pieces of lake effect break off and reach as far east as the Capital Region for late Tuesday night. By Wednesday, the northwesterly flow should keep the best chance mainly across central NY, but some snow showers could sneak into Schoharie County and the eastern Catskills from time to time. The band may eventually lift back northward by Wed night with a few snow showers still possible across far western areas. Temps will continue to be very cold, especially considering it's early March. Daytime highs will remain in the teens and 20s, with lows in the single digits. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Well below normal temperatures are expected to gradually moderate to near normal levels over the weekend. Guidance is in general agreement that short waves should continue to rotate about a departing upper low/trough as we head into the weekend with on-going lake effect off Lake Ontario. Guidance indicates some ridging should build in over the weekend, however a large low pressure system is expected to take shape over the Plains then track northeastward into the Great Lakes region. There are model differences with the evolution and track of this system however there is agreement it should pass to our west placing our region on the warm side of the system indicating another event with multiple precipitation types Sunday and Sunday night. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR conditions will improvement to VFR this morning and continue through 12Z/Tuesday as the coastal low moves northeastward to the Canadian Maritimes today. Northeasterly winds will increase as the low deepens with brisk and gusty conditions much of the day. Gusts up to around 25 knots are expected. Winds will decrease and shift more to the west tonight as higher pressure builds in. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SN. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated through the week. A storm system is departing the region this morning, allowing for dry weather to return to the area with decreasing clouds. Aside from some lake effect snow showers over western areas, mainly dry weather is expected each day this week. The next chance for widespread precipitation won't be until the weekend. Temperatures will be below normal through the week and may not reach back above freezing until late in the week or the weekend. River and lake ice will continue to remain in place and may even thicken in some areas. As a result, river and streams levels will hold steady through the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA HYDROLOGY...Frugis