248 
FXUS63 KILX 022347
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
547 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

Clouds will continue to impact the region tonight through the end
of the weekend, as another weather making system approaches the
Midwest. Current radar returns are indicating precipitation
falling from the sky across central Illinois, however with dry air
still overhead much of this is dissipating before reaching the
ground. The region should remain dry through the evening and into
the overnight.

Models continue to trend slowly with the approaching system, as
well as a slight decrease in total snowfall amounts around the
region. Northerly winds will help to tighten the precipitation
gradient for this system. This will also usher dry air into the
region ahead of the system, meaning saturation will take a little
extra time before precip finally begins to reach the ground Sunday
morning.

Current position of the low remains in the Rockies, but a rapid
ejection of the system will occur this evening as it races through
the Plains and arrives into the mid-Mississippi Valley early
Sunday morning. It will arrive as a disorganized low, before
redeveloping a core in the southeast US. Models agree that 
snowfall will start after 12z in the south-western portion of the 
CWA. It will then spread to the east north-east through the
morning, with the majority of snowfall occurring along and south
of I-72. Locations north of I-72 are expected to receive up to 2
inches of snowfall, while locations south of I-72 will get 2-3 
inches. Surrounding offices to the southwest and south have issued
a Winter Weather Advisory, after understanding this event is on a
Sunday with lowered impacts, I will continue the SPS already 
ongoing. This system will quickly move through the region Sunday,
exiting between 00-03z.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

Behind the exiting system, a blast of cold Arctic air will filter
into the Midwest for the first half of the upcoming week. A 1044mb
high will develop across the northern Rockies, and with a tight
pressure gradient, enhanced northwesterly winds will move across
the northern Plains into the Midwest. This will bring another
round of cold air, and frigid wind chills, to the region. Monday
morning lows will be in the single digits, with wind chills around
advisory criteria of -15 to -20 from I-72 northward. At this time
no surrounding offices have initiated a wind chill advisory, but
that will need to be addressed tonight. No issuance was given, as
to not confuse the public with different advisories. Clear skies
will return Monday behind the frontal passage, however
temperatures will be quite chilly in the teens to mid 20s. The low
will drop out of the northern Rockies and deepen as it heads into
the central Plains. This will provide one more frigid night, Monday
into Tuesday, as temperatures dip to the single digits around 
much of the area. Westerly winds will remain elevated near 
10-15mph, dropping wind chills back into the negative double 
digits Tuesday morning.

The high will continue to dominate the region through mid-week
before giving way to another weather producing system.
Temperatures will warm during the second half of the week, as
southerly winds return. However, the region will remain below
normal (mid 40s) for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Sat Mar 2 2019

MVFR ceilings linger at both KBMI and KCMI late this afternoon:
however, these will likely improve over the next couple of hours.
Main aviation weather concern will an approaching storm system
late tonight into Sunday that will spread snow into the area.
Forecast soundings suggest ceilings will lower back to MVFR at
KPIA by 06z...then further east to KCMI by around 12z. Snow will
develop from west to east Sunday morning, but will be heaviest and
most persistent at the I-72 terminals where visbys will be reduced
to around 2 miles. The snow will quickly come to an end between
18z and 22z. Winds will initially be N/NE at around 10kt through
tonight, then will back to NW and increase to 10-15kt by Sunday
afternoon. 

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Baker
AVIATION...Barnes