658 FXUS64 KMEG 021126 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 526 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CST Sat Mar 2 2019/ DISCUSSION... Progressive, quasi-zonal flow aloft continues across much of the CONUS early this morning. A quasi-stationary front remains anchored to our south near the Gulf Coast, maintaining northerly winds across the Mid-South and keeping us locked into the cooler air. An even stronger front is moving across the Midwest and will affect the Mid-South about 24 hours from now. The next significant trough that will affect the CWA is currently located off the CA coast but will move rapidly eastward over the next 36 hours. Scattered showers have developed across portions of north MS in an area of 925-850 mb frontogenesis but this forcing will weaken near or after 12z and any lingering precipitation is expected to dissipate. Otherwise, expect dry and mostly cloudy conditions. Temperatures will remain a bit below climatology given the persistent north winds and lack of strong surface heating. Mid- level warm advection will ramp up ahead of the approaching trough this evening, supporting scattered rain showers after sunset. Coverage will likely increase overnight as additional lift develops in association with the left exit region of the upper- tropospheric jet streak. Widespread rain will likely be ongoing around sunrise Sunday but will begin to taper off by afternoon as the drier air arrives. The cold air will filter into the Mid-South throughout the day Sunday allowing temperatures to fall into the mid/upper 30s across much of the CWA by early/mid afternoon. However, at this time, it looks like temperatures will remain above freezing while the potential rain/snow mix is occurring. This should limit the amount of accumulating snow across the forecast area. Most areas will see no accumulation, but perhaps a dusting is possible north of a Paragould-Dyersburg-Huntingdon line. Even the 90th percentile snow probability from WPC has backed off from yesterday's potential with a ceiling of 1-2" along the KY/MO border. The potential for ice remains low as well, but there is an outside chance that we could see just a bit of freezing drizzle tomorrow afternoon in extreme northeast AR or the MO Bootheel if temperatures wet-bulb below 0C and the dendritic growth zone begins to dry out. There looks to be sufficient instability to support a chance for thunderstorms, mainly across north Mississippi late tonight through Sunday afternoon. The SPC does have a marginal risk for severe weather across this portion of the CWA, but that threat appears to be quite limited. The good news is that this system looks a bit more progressive than it did a few days ago. That will limit the duration of rainfall, thus leading to generally lower QPF across the Mid-South. Soil remains saturated across the CWA so there was a concern for additional flooding. The latest data suggests rainfall amounts of 1-2" across northeast MS with generally 1" or less elsewhere. Given the lower QPF and the receding water levels on area rivers, it doesn't appear that a Flood Watch is needed. Any lingering precipitation is expected to end quickly Sunday evening as isentropic downglide commences and a dry arctic air mass advects into the region. The dry weather is expected to persist Monday through Wednesday. A trailing shortwave trough may provide some cloud cover on Monday, but generally sunny conditions are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday. Despite the sunny skies, temperatures will remain quite cold through Tuesday with highs mainly in the 30s. Some areas probably won't even reach 30F on Monday. Overnight lows will also be quite cold with temperatures dropping into the teens in many areas. Single digit wind chills are anticipated Monday and Tuesday mornings with some areas falling into the 0-5F range. The models are in good agreement through Wednesday but begin to diverge slightly for the end of the week. The GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all indicate a ridge over the west eventually damping as another trough moves across the Rockies. The ECMWF is just a bit faster with this wave but the general consensus is that PoPs will increase along with temperatures late in the week. Expect highs near 60F by Friday with rain chances Thursday into the weekend. Johnson && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF cycle Ceilings will continue to gradually lower today with most locations having some periods of IFR ceilings later today. Rain will move into western sections of the forecast area tonight and spread across the remainder of the region overnight. Winds will be mainly from the northeast at around 5 knots for much of the forecast period. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$