041 FXUS61 KBGM 020805 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 305 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow again visits Northeast Pennsylvania to the far southern tier and Catskills of New York early this morning as a system passes. Another disturbance this afternoon into evening will result in snow showers mainly in Central New York. A strong low pressure system is expected to bring accumulating snow Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 3 AM Update... A pair of weak waves will have minor impacts on the near term period; one leaving early this morning and another passing late today into early tonight. Similar to 24 hours ago, a brisk zonal flow has sent another wave into the Midatlantic states to southern New England early this morning. However, this time it is also strengthening a low offshore. Overall impact for us is little changed, however, since that low is pretty distant. Light snow has reached into the Twin Tiers but especially Wyoming Valley-Poconos of PA to Catskills of NY. The wave will exit Poconos-Catskills shortly after dawn, after 1-3 inches of light accumulation. Meanwhile, a northern stream wave now in the Western Great Lakes, will take on a negative tilt before passing through our region late afternoon-early evening. This represents a larger gap between waves than had been expected, and thus much of today will actually be dry despite plenty of clouds. The wave will then bring a quick shot of snow showers, but accumulations will be quite limited and mainly in Central NY due to temperatures around or slightly above freezing. In fact, if any of it does manage to reach the Twin Tiers, it may mix with light rain in the valleys. The highest elevations of Central NY could manage to get near an inch, but vast majority will get well under that if indeed any at all. The wave will exit this evening, allowing snow showers to taper to just a few flurries overnight, then dry by dawn. Lows will be mainly in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 2 pm update... With a fast zonal flow aloft the next system comes in Sunday afternoon. This will be a much stronger system than the ones of late. Much uncertainty on the track of the storm and for us how far northwest the heavy snow extends. A surface low moves northeast out of the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday night connected to the southern stream. As it gets to the mid Atlantic an upper level trough dropping southeast into the Great Lakes will catch the surface low. The low will intensify just off the East coast Sunday night and Monday. The Euro continues to be the furthest west while the GFS is furthest east. The Nam is between these two. All show a quick shot of snow moving in Sunday afternoon and leaving Sunday overnight. The low will slow but not soon enough for our area. Followed WPC closer with the highest amounts of 6 to 10 inches in NEPA and the western Catskills. Valleys could have reduced amounts with temperatures starting above freezing in the afternoon. With the uncertainty and the model disagreement did not want to issue a watch yet. From the Finger Lakes to the western Mohawk Valley more of a 3 to 6 inch amounts for now. Monday in a deep northwest flow of cold air. Lake effect snow showers will be across most of the entire area in the morning shrinking to CNY in the afternoon. Snow amounts will be light. Temperatures start out warm in the low and mid 30s Sunday afternoon but drop to the upper teens and lower 20s Sunday overnight. Temperatures recover to the mid 20s in CNY to low 30s Wyoming Valley and middle Delaware Valley. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 pm update... A deep trough remains situated over the Northeast, which will keep the area in cold, NW flow for much of the extended period. Lake effect flurries and snow showers are expected Tuesday through Thursday, but a cold front moving through will help to spread the snow potential across our whole area midweek. The next real shot at snow returns by Friday afternoon, as models indicate another low pressure system moving into the Lower Midwest. Otherwise, expect increasing temperatures into the weekend. While most of the extended will see lows in the single digits and teens and highs in the teens and 20s, increasing temperatures Friday afternoon peak in the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 06Z Update... A low pressure system passing mainly to our south will bring fuel alternate required restrictions including light snow for KAVP early this morning. At KELM/KITH/KBGM, ceilings will barely reach into MVFR category but moisture will be limited enough to where flurries will probably not be restrictive. Meanwhile KSYR-KRME will be out of the reach of this first system. However, a second disturbance passing through mid afternoon to evening will cause fuel alternate required ceilings to develop for most if not all terminals, with visibility restrictions from snow showers especially KSYR-KRME. Very light east or variable wind, will be come west-northwest this afternoon onward at roughly 5 knots. Outlook... Late Saturday night through midday Sunday...Lingering MVFR/possible fuel alternate ceilings for the NY terminals, but joining KAVP at VFR by late morning through midday. Late Sunday through Sunday night...A large system is likely bring restrictions in snow, possibly heavy at times. Monday through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions possible for primarily the NY terminals from lake effect snow showers/clouds. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for PAZ044-047-048-072. NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...HLC AVIATION...MDP