157 FXUS62 KFFC 011639 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1135 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019 .Update... No changes to the forecast. 41 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 AM EST Fri Mar 1 2019/ SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/... Old frontal boundary remains situated across the southeast US, from the Carolinas to the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This boundary will remain situated across GA through the short term period, allowing for unsettled weather to continue into the first half of the weekend. Several pieces of mid level energy will move east in the fast flow aloft, interacting with the stalled frontal boundary. The upper level disturbances will help create a lift to focus periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary through Saturday night. The first (stronger) wave is already initiating an area of widespread shra and isolated thunderstorms. This precip shield will move through the CWFA for most of today, with a brief break overnight before the next wave tomorrow. The models are progging the boundary to be a little further south across southern GA tomorrow, so the best chances for pops are across the southern quarter of the CWFA. There is enough instability to mention isolated thunderstorms. Also, isolated thunderstorms possible tomorrow with the next wave. Severe weather is not anticipated, but strong thunderstorms are not out of the question. Gusty winds and small hail will be possible, especially this morning. NListemaa LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/... Main concern will be the movement of a cold front across the area in the Sunday and Sunday night timeframe. The European develops a wave on the front that moves across n GA. This will cause the greatest concern for severe weather potential. The GFS has a weaker wave along the front that moves across central GA that would have less of a severe weather threat. This progression will have to be closely watched. Either way a surge of deep moisture can be expected with an upper level trough associated that will allow a chance of thunderstorms along with heavy rain potential, most so Sunday afternoon and evening. There could be a brief rain/snow show mix over the northeast mountains late Sunday night before all precip ends up that way. There could be some lingering light showers over portions of central GA Monday into Monday night. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and for the most part, Thursday as well except there is a short wave forecast with at least increasing moisture on Thursday that will need to be monitored for rain potential with future forecast updates. Temperatures will start off above normal then fall well below normal behind the next front for much of the work week. BDL && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... ATL is currently in a break in the precip. Do think this area will fill in later this morning as an upper disturbance currently over western AL moves through. The hi-res models are struggling to resolve the upper disturbance, so have tried to indicate the best timing for heavier shra within the TAF with a TEMPO. Confidence is low. CIGS have temporarily improved to VFR, but do no think that will last, especially as the precip fills back in. Winds will remain on the west side. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Low to med confidence with precip timing. Med confidence remaining elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 49 67 50 / 70 20 20 30 Atlanta 65 49 65 52 / 60 20 20 30 Blairsville 60 41 62 44 / 70 20 10 30 Cartersville 63 45 62 47 / 60 20 20 30 Columbus 71 55 71 55 / 70 20 30 20 Gainesville 63 46 64 48 / 70 20 20 30 Macon 69 54 70 54 / 70 20 30 20 Rome 62 44 62 46 / 60 20 20 40 Peachtree City 67 50 67 50 / 60 20 20 30 Vidalia 72 58 74 59 / 70 40 30 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...41