309 FXUS63 KICT 011040 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 440 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 439 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019 Today-tonight: Persistent clouds and snow cover continue to pose challenges with temperature forecast. Return flow should boost temperatures some relative to yesterday. Cold front will enter central KS this afternoon with cold air advection overspreading the entire area tonight. Temperatures tonight will also be challenging with the cold air advection, lingering wind and increasing clouds. Moisture appears to be lacking and will go with a dry forecast, although post frontal isolated flurries cannot be ruled out. - Howerton Attention then turns to the weekend as a fast-moving, but impactful winter system is expected to bring accumulating snow, some blowing snow, and very low/potentially dangerously-cold wind chill values. Today's cold front will settle well south of Kansas this weekend as an anomalously strong 1050-1055mb high drops south out of Canada. Even for that part of the country, that is an anomalously strong high pressure. That airmass moving south will set the stage for a decent and impactful overrunning winter event this weekend. Aloft, an upper level low out over the Pacific will open up and weaken as it reaches the US West Coast, then traverse the Rockies before moving out over the Central Plains. Model guidance differs some on the amplification and strength of the wave, but generally agree on the evolution. The left-exit region of a 120kt jet accompanying the wave will move over the area providing large-scale forcing for ascent. Initially dry mid/upper levels should quickly moisten by Saturday night, with forecast soundings indicating a deep, moist column well into the snow-growth region. In fact, across central Kansas, temperatures will likely be cold enough in the low levels to support a very deep snow growth layer. In addition to the deep moisture, models suggest a period of coupled forcing possible late Saturday night. As the previous shift mentioned, there is some potential for slantwise instability to augment to large-scale lift present. Lastly, below to well-below normal temperatures should support higher-than-climo snow ratios, especially from Wichita north. This system will be a quick-moving system, but the anomalous and deep moisture combined with higher snow ratios and the potential for some convective elements, suggests some areas could reach or exceed 1"/hr snowfall rates. There is still some uncertainty regarding where the heaviest snow will setup. Central KS will have the benefit of higher snow ratios, despite the potential of lower QPF amounts, while south-central and southeast Kansas may have the benefit of convective elements. Based on all of the above, confidence in a widespread accumulating snow is high enough to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the entire forecast area with a broad swath of 3-6" expected. Locally higher amounts in excess of 6" will be possible if a heavier band of snow does, indeed, develop. Models differ on where this may occur, and felt it prudent to go ahead with a Watch for all of our counties until we get a better handle on where the higher amounts may end up. Regardless, this will likely be a high-end Winter Weather Advisory event, with the possibility of some counties being upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning later. As the snow moves out, a period of stronger winds will likely develop, especially along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Blowing/drifting of snow is likely there due to the drier nature of the snow. This will then be followed by sub-zero wind chill values through early next week. This event, while not overly strong aloft, has the potential to be a higher-impact event given the combination of snow, wind, and dangerous wind chill values. Martin .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 439 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019 Beyond the weekend, the strong surface high overhead will lead to multiple nights of very cold/dangerously cold wind chill values, especially with the fresh snowpack. High clouds may limit just how cold it gets, but the bottom line is it will be well-below normal. Moderating temperatures can be expected later in the week. Precip- wise, another quick-hitting system may bring another round of wintry precipitation mid to late week. Martin && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1128 PM CST Thu Feb 28 2019 Pesky low level moisture continues to plaque portions of central and southern KS late this evening. Latest satellite images have shown the stratus persisting along I-135. Plan on continuing to be pessimistic with the low clouds dissipating overnight, so planning on keeping MVFR cigs around for KHUT/KSLN and KICT for the early morning hours on Fri. Think the low clouds will eventually dissipate or burn off after sunrise on Fri. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of Fri, with the main concern being an approaching cold front, which will move into central KS by Fri afternoon, and southern KS by Fri evening with a wind shift to the NW and N. Ketcham && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 439 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019 No fire weather concerns are expected through the weekend due to very cold temperatures and accumulating snowfall. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 45 21 34 17 / 0 0 0 90 Hutchinson 45 18 32 15 / 0 0 0 90 Newton 44 18 31 15 / 0 0 0 90 ElDorado 44 20 33 17 / 0 0 0 90 Winfield-KWLD 45 22 36 19 / 0 0 0 90 Russell 35 14 21 11 / 0 0 20 90 Great Bend 38 15 24 11 / 0 0 20 90 Salina 39 17 27 13 / 0 0 0 90 McPherson 43 17 30 14 / 0 0 0 90 Coffeyville 45 25 39 25 / 0 0 10 90 Chanute 43 23 35 21 / 0 0 0 90 Iola 42 22 34 20 / 0 0 0 90 Parsons-KPPF 44 25 37 23 / 0 0 0 90 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...RM LONG TERM...RM AVIATION...Ketcham FIRE WEATHER...RM