525 FXUS61 KBTV 281407 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 907 AM EST Thu Feb 28 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today into Friday. Weak low pressure will bring a period of light snows to the area later Saturday into Saturday evening with perhaps a more impactful system affecting portions of the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 903 AM EST Thursday...Only minor adjustments needed, though adjusted dewpoints downwards, especially near the International Border. Skies continue to clear as high pressure is becoming established today and have adjusted sky to the latest satellite trends. All else is in great shape. Have a great day! Prior discussion... Looking for quiet weather over the next 36 hours as surface high pressure builds back across the area. Any lingering light snows or flurries will end across southern counties by mid- morning at the latest as last night's surface low skirts well offshore near the 40N/-70W benchmark. Skies will trend partly to mostly sunny by afternoon under light northerly flow as highs moderate somewhat from yesterday's unseasonably cold readings into the upper teens to lower 20s. These values are still some 8 to 12 degrees below seasonal late February norms. Clear to partly cloudy skies then continue tonight into Friday with the aforementioned elongated high stretching from the northeast west back through the Great Lakes region. Lows tonight once again on the chilly side with decent radiative effects driving values down into the +/- single digits. By Friday the airmass continues to moderate under a higher early March sun angle with model averaged 925 mb temperatures climbing into the -6 to -9C range by 18Z. Using a standard +8C adjustment for surface temperatures for early March yields highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s which seems reasonable at this point given the lack of clouds. Quite the nice day given our recent stretch of cold. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 346 AM EST Thursday...Saturday morning starts out quietly as high pressure pushes to the east. Guidance has come into slightly better agreement that a weak coastal low will develop and push the high pressure out of the region. That allows a northern stream shortwave to bring some light snowfall to the region with generally one to 3 inches of snow expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. All areas should see some light snow but we're not looking at huge amounts. High pressure briefly returns Sunday before a potentially more significant system develops coming out of the weekend. Temps over the weekend are fairly seasonable with highs in the upper 20s to mid 30s and lows in the teens Friday night and the 20s Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 346 AM EST Thursday...The end of the weekend and start of the work week is starting to look like at least portions of the North Country could see some significant snowfall. We'll be under continuous cyclonic flow aloft and all of the medium ranged models are now developing an elongated low pressure system that moves through the Mid-Atlantic states and deepens near the benchmark. There's still some spread in the location of that low and whether or not the low tracks inside or outside of 40N, 70W will have significant impacts to the amount of snow across the North Country. For the time being I've offered a blend of the EC/CMC which brings the low track just inside benchmark and brings snow to the North Country generally from the Adirondacks southeastward. Either solution still brings decent snow to southern Vermont so we'll continue to watch for potential headlines. The tough part about the forecast is that even as some of the low level dynamics are starting to look more impressive there isn't a blocking high and its an open wave aloft. So its going to be tough to pile up large snow totals given the lack of a closed low aloft and fast moving progressive system. Behind that the prognosis is for more cold. Tuesday into Wednesday we're looking at thicknesses dropping to 492-495 with 925mb temps around -16C to -18C Wednesday. This signal has been consistent in the models so I did go ahead and start trending the forecast temperatures lower than some of the blended guidance. I think we'll see highs in the upper teens to near 20 Tuesday with single digits to teens on Wednesday and then back to the low 20s Thursday. Lows each night should fall into the single digits above and below zero. Thats well below normal to start March where our normal temps are starting to creep into the upper 30s for highs and mid to upper teens for lows. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday...VFR through the forecast period as light snows have largely come to an end and skies will remain or trend largely SKC in the 12-17Z time frame. Clouds to linger longest at KRUT/KMPV. Winds generally light northerly and less than 10 kts. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Haynes/JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG