963 FXUS63 KDLH 272148 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 348 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 Not a lot to talk about. Clearing skies may drop temperatures into the 0 to -10 F degree range tonight especially over NW Wisconsin. A thin layer of stratus may keep temps across the MN Arrowhead a little warmer. Longer days will allow temperatures to rebound into the 20s Thursday. A weak system will brush the Canadian Border Thursday, but barely have PoPs in our forecast area - really just flurries as high pressure to our south should keep the Northland dry. The next system on tap for Friday begins to inch close to the Brainerd area Thursday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 345 PM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 No significant storms are expected through the extended with only a few chances for light snow. Another shot of cold Canadian air will arrive this weekend into early next week that will lead wind chill issues for a few nights and keep temperatures well below normal. Generally zonal flow will be in place Thursday into Friday. A weak shortwave will skirt along the northern border Thursday night into Friday morning. Guidance isn't doing much with this shortwave in terms of precipitation, but a few light snow showers or flurries cannot be ruled out along the International Border. High pressure over northeast Iowa will keep the bulk of the area dry. Another shortwave will then approach the region later on Friday. Surface low pressure will be well to the south over Nebraska, but will move to the northeast into southern Wisconsin by Friday night. This will bring a quick shot of snow to most of the Northland. Thaler QG progs are not overly impressive with this system and the NAM is the strongest between the GFS, ECMWF and NAM. The best area of lift will move through northwest Wisconsin for the late afternoon and eventing hours. This could lead to a slick commute Friday evening across the Northland, with northwest Wisconsin seeing the greatest impacts. Snowfall amounts will be in the 1 to 3 inch range generally with isolated higher amounts in southern Pine and southwestern Burnett Counties. As this system moves out Friday night, an upper level low will move out of Manitoba and into Ontario and deepen. While any snow with this low will not affect the Northland, it will rotate another shot of cold air into the area, with 850mb temperatures on the order of - 20 to -30C. The coldest of the air looks to move through on Sunday. With this cold air in place, there will be wind chill concerns Saturday night into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning. After coordinating with surrounding offices, have lowered temperatures for the weekend through the end of the extended as guidance doesn't seem to be latching on to the extent of the cold air. Heading into the new week, northwest flow will be in place across the Northland, leading to a lake effect snow potential along the South Shore of Lake Superior. With much of western Lake Superior frozen, this does limit the moisture available for this to occur. Chances look better further west across the Keweenaw in Upper Michigan, but have continued to carry chance pops through the snow belt in Iron County. Additionally, the 27.12 GFS and ECMWF bring an area of concentrated vorticity through the area for Monday into Tuesday. The 27.12 Canadian does have a shortwave trough moving through, but nowhere near the magnitude of the GFS/ECMWF. This feature could result in some snow showers in the Monday afternoon- Tuesday morning time period. However, have opted to keep a consensus forecast for this feature due to timing and spacial differences. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1142 AM CST Wed Feb 27 2019 VFR conditions are seen across the terminals early this afternoon aside from KHYR. Cumulus clouds have developed over northwest Wisconsin and these are expected to persist through the afternoon before diminishing after sunset. This will keep MVFR ceilings in place for KHYR. Further north, an area of cloud cover is approaching KINL and will arrive in the next few hours, bringing a VFR ceiling that will remain in place into tomorrow. There may be a few light snow showers overnight at KINL as well, but overall confidence is pretty low on this. As such, treated with VCSH until confidence improves. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH -5 22 3 21 / 0 0 10 70 INL -3 20 -1 20 / 20 10 10 30 BRD -7 21 1 20 / 0 0 10 70 HYR -8 23 3 24 / 0 0 0 80 ASX -3 25 6 23 / 0 0 10 70 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wolfe LONG TERM...BJH AVIATION...BJH