248 FXUS61 KBTV 271728 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 1228 PM EST Wed Feb 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Late winter cold persists over the next 24 hours as weak low pressure brings a period of light snows to most of the area tonight. Behind this system temperatures moderate into late week with the next chance for light snow or rain coming by later Saturday into Saturday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1225 PM EST Wednesday...Have adjusted pops just a bit to anticipate arrival of light snow this evening. Temperatures are cold as expected. Snow is making it's way into Western and Central New York and will spread into our southern zones this evening. Prior discussion... Strong 1036 mb surface high continues to build into the region this morning as gusty winds have trended light in most locales. Based off latest wind chill values have opted to cancel Wind Chill headlines for all but portions of north central and northeastern VT with this package. As the high bridges atop and northeast of the area later today into tonight a weak clipper low will pass off to our south bringing a period of light snows to much of the area. Limited moisture is associated with this feature and better dynamical support for lift in the boundary layer will reside in closer proximity to the low track across central NY into far southern VT. With 00Z model data maintaining overall consistency with this scenario I'll offer persistence in regard to PoPs and snowfall. This would suggest general 1-3 inch accumulations across the southern SLV, southern Franklin and Essex Counties in NY and much of south central VT. A few spot totals of around 4" are possible in elevated terrain of the far southern Greens. Only about an inch or so is expected in the Burlington and Montpelier areas with little if any accumulation along the intl. border and northeastern VT. High temperatures will only top out in the teens today with lows tonight holding mainly in the positive single digits with a greater abundance of clouds. A few spots across far northeastern VT may see readings dip a tad below the zero mark. By Thursday another surface high builds into the area as skies trend partly to mostly sunny over time. This high is associated with a milder airmass of Midwestern origin so temperatures will moderate by afternoon - topping out mainly in the 20s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 AM EST Wednesday...Thursday night should be rather chilly across the North Country as high pressure crests over the region. Expect temps in the single digits above and below zero with 925mb temps sitting between -11C to -12C along with calm winds. Clouds should be limited with mostly clear skies across northeast Vermont and perhaps some patchy cloud cover across the southern tier of the North Country. Friday continues the quiet weather with high pressure over the region. With little in the way of atmospheric moisture we should be heading towards a nice sunny day. Heading into Friday evening we should see some cloud cover building in across the region along with warmer southerly flow. Temps should top off in the mid 30s which is near normal for late February. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 342 AM EST Wednesday...The weekend is shaping up to be a very interesting forecast. We'll be seasonably cold and under cyclonic flow aloft but what happens at the surface still is a bit murky. The medium ranged guidance is all over the place with regards to potential systems. The first system should pass through Saturday afternoon and then a second potentially stronger system looks to develop and push through late Sunday night into Monday. The spread in guidance from the GFS/FV3/CMC/EC offers quite a few different solutions. The consensus, if you can call it that, is that we'll see an upper level open wave track along with a modest surface low pushing up through the Ohio Valley. It will have the potential to bring a quick burst of snow to the region but exact amounts and timing are a bit noisy for the time being. Would like to see more ensemble support for the different options before settling on a specific model track. For this mornings forecast I did lean a bit away from the GFS and more towards a EC/CMC blend regarding snowfall potential which brings a bit more snow across central and southern Vermont with lower amounts from central Vermont north and west. Time will tell and we'll certainly be updating as guidance comes into better agreement or a clearer signal emerges. Lake effect snow showers should develop behind that potential system Tuesday into the middle of the week as we see well below normal temperatures. Expect max temps only warming into the teens to low 20s with overnight lows falling to the single digits through the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions through 20Z as mid and high level cloud cover gradually overspreads the region in advance of weak low pressure. Thereafter, light snow associated with the low can be expected to overspread most terminals in the 20-00Z time frame as visibilities lower to IFR and cigs to MVFR. Snows will tend to lessen in intensity/coverage at many northern terminals after 06Z. Winds generally light and less than 10 kts through the forecast period. After 12z Thursday conditions will improve to VFR again. Outlook... Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG/Neiles SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG/Neiles