515 FXUS64 KSHV 270410 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1010 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019 .Update... Temps will remain fairly steady overnight given dewpoints which should not change much either under a thick ovc and lgt e-se wind. Thus, have adjusted overnight lows upward a few degrees and beefed up mention of fog slightly. However, trends not indicating any widespread development so not dense fog advisory for now. As convection has remained concentrated just south of cwa but may lift slightly nwd, have tailored pops to 14 percent north to 40 percent south./07/. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019/ AVIATION... Conditions becmg ocnl ifr as cigs lowering across the area. Kmlu and keld will continue to see low vfr cigs but they will eventually lower overnight. Scattered showers and isold tstms will remain mostly south of I-20 and terminals aside from klfk may not see any pcpn besides possible -ra or -dz although rain may spread north of I-20 durg day Wed. Cigs to remain mostly ifr to low mvfr thru remainder of 28/00z fcst period after 27/06z. Portions of ne TX, and possible other areas, may see fog and drizzle reducing vsby, in addition to ifr to possible lifr cigs tonight./07/. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CST Tue Feb 26 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/ Water vapor imagery indicates a fast-moving upper level shortwave pivoting across north central Texas this afternoon with associated lift farther SE out ahead of it where some thunderstorms are noted on visible satellite and radar mosaics. Thes leading edge of these storms can be seen moving into our SW counties in East Texas just south of Tyler with additional convection farther SW near Houston. A small hail threat remains possible with a few of these storms, but the greater threat will generally remain just to our south. Look for thunderstorms to generally remain along and south of I-20 through this evening while spotty showers continue farther north across the remainder of the region as the shortwave feature passes overhead. Patchy fog will also develop after midnight across our southern and western sections, further expanding toward daybreak to encompass a larger part of the area. Overnight low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s north to lower and mid 50s south. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day on Wednesday into Wednesday night as well with a northward advancing warm front combined with a cold front shifting south from the Plains. The warm front is expected to lift across the SE half of the region through the day, and this is the primary area where thunderstorms are expected while mainly showers will occur farther NW. Temperatures will climb through 60s by afternoon with a larger range of overnight temperatures as the cold front begins shifting SE across the region with mid to upper 40s NW and 50s to the SE. /19/ LONG TERM.../Thursday through Monday Night/ Shallow cold front under disturbed near-zonal flow aloft to be making its way swd across our region at the start of Thursday accompanied by sct shwrs, although, as with previous packages, there are some discrepancies in model solutions. The NAM is aggressive and deeper with the cold front, and has it mostly through our entire area by Thursday morning. The GFS/Euro/Canadian solutions are more alike and are slower to bring the front swd through the day Thursday. With the faster NAM being the outlier and armed with the knowledge that shallow cold airmasses typically spend some time dammed up in the Ouachita Mountains of SE OK before being able to spill swd, have leaned more towards the slower solutions. Unsettled wx pattern to continue through Friday before another cold front associated with an impulse passing to our n approaches our region Saturday. Still some differences in timing of this front. The GFS/Canadian solutions bring the front all the way s of our region by late Saturday night, with convection along and ahead of the front, while the Euro is much slower with more isentropic lift induced precip behind the front. Regardless, Sunday looks wet for the most part, and depending upon the depth of the cold air/sfc temps, we could see some type of wintry precip, as multiple impulses overrun the cold airmass at the sfc. Still much uncertainty with regard to this possibility. The good news is, Monday looks dry for the most part, and the models are actually in good agreement, as our flow aloft becomes nwly in the base of a longwave trof over the Great Lakes. /12/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 55 66 54 63 / 20 30 50 40 MLU 54 67 56 68 / 20 40 50 40 DEQ 49 61 46 52 / 10 30 50 40 TXK 50 63 49 56 / 10 30 50 40 ELD 52 64 52 62 / 10 30 50 40 TYR 55 67 47 55 / 20 20 50 30 GGG 52 67 50 60 / 20 30 50 30 LFK 54 69 58 65 / 40 30 30 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$