443 
FXUS64 KLCH 261533
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
933 AM CST Tue Feb 26 2019

.UPDATE...
Scattered showers continue across the area this morning with the
most widespread activity presently moving across parts of central
Louisiana. The only significant change to the forecast this
morning was to raise PoPs across this area to likely in better 
alignment with the rest of the area.

Expect shower and isolated thunderstorm activity to continue to
increase through the morning and persist through the remainder of
the day. SPC continues the marginal risk hatched area across all
of southeast Texas and south Louisiana for the possibility of
hail with stronger storms. 

Jones

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 526 AM CST Tue Feb 26 2019/ 

AVIATION...Scattered showers are currently moving northeast over
the region, however little impact is occurring outside of 
isolated MVFR ceilings and a brief reduction in vis. Coverage will
increase today with ceilings lowering through the day and 
evening. IFR ceilings will dominate tonight with LIFR ceilings 
possible as well. Winds will remain east to northeast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CST Tue Feb 26 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered showers continue across the area early this
morning, and at least isolated activity is likely to persist 
through the morning amid WAA regime/moist isentropic ascent. Both
coverage and intensity are expected to increase this afternoon 
and tonight as a shortwave trof noted on water vapor satellite 
imagery this morning S of the Four Corners approaches and then 
traverses region. SPC continues to outline the area within a 
marginal risk of severe weather, primarily for hail associated 
with elevated strong/severe TSTMS above a stable cool layer.
Isolated to scattered activity will continue into WED as a WMFNT
retreats NWD out of the Gulf and lifts through the area, with a 
relative lull in rainfall expected WED night.

Rain chances increase again THU as additional shortwave energy
nudges the front back TWD the S, though the boundary looks to
barely make it into the area with bulk of cooler air remaining
to our NW. Regardless, low level flow is progged to become
oriented more from the W or SW, with a plume of relatively drier 
air pushing in yielding lower rain chances FRI.

Seasonal high temperatures are expected today, with warmer
readings expected the rest of the week.

Forecast for the weekend is still one of low confidence, as there
continues to be a notable split in guidance regarding the timing 
of a CDFNT over the weekend. The GFS remains on the faster side of
the guidance in bringing the boundary through late SAT, with the 
ECMWF and CMC holding off until SUN. For the time being, both GFS 
and ECMWF MOS are fairly similar in showing a mild SAT afternoon, 
with the sensible weather SAT night into SUN more impacted by the 
difference, evidenced by a 15-20F spread in temperatures and a 
similarly large variation in PoPs. They merge again for early next
week showing a cool and wet forecast for MON and TUE.

13

MARINE...
Modest east winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected today, with increasing chances of sea fog formation
tonight. Winds will gradually become more southeasterly by 
Wednesday, with an onshore flow expected to persist the rest of 
the week. Showers and isolated thunderstorm are expected for most 
of this upcoming week due to a series of upper level disturbances 
moving across the region. Patchy to areas of fog will be possible 
through Friday. 

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  61  53  71  58 /  80  50  40  30 
LCH  62  58  73  62 /  80  80  40  20 
LFT  65  59  74  63 /  80  80  50  30 
BPT  63  59  73  63 /  80  60  40  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...66