255 FXUS61 KPHI 260851 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 351 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue building in from the west through tonight yielding fair weather. A weak low pressure system will affect the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, then high pressure returns briefly on Thursday. More unsettled weather is expected Friday and into the weekend with another system potentially developing and passing south or west of the region. High pressure returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes continues to drift out to sea today. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Northern Plains will build into the Great Lakes today. Northwest pressure gradient will relax this morning, and west winds will average 5-10 mph, except 10-20 mph along the NJ shore and up in the higher elevations of the Pocono Mountains. A mid-level stratocu deck will overspread the region throughout the day. Going into the afternoon, winds increase again, averaging 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Highs today will be in the 20s in the southern Poconos, and otherwise in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... The center of the high moves from the northern Great Lakes and into northern New York state late tonight. Cloudy skies will keep strong radiational cooling conditions from developing, but lows will be in the teens north and west of the Fall Line, and otherwise in the 20s. Isolated snow showers may move into the southern Poconos prior to daybreak Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term period starts off with high pressure centered across Upstate New York with largely zonal flow aloft across the eastern US, which is expected through the end of the week. The high will move continue to move slowly eastward eventually weakening and pushing offshore Wednesday night. A shortwave trough will pass quickly off to our north late Wednesday and early Thursday. This shortwave will bring some light precipitation to our area, however it appears that there will be some drier mid-level air in place across the central and southern portion of the forecast area. The 00Z medium range guidance suite indicates the deepest moisture plumes and forcing will remain focused primarily toward the northern part of our area, where precip is most likely to occur, with a weak low pressure center passing over the southern portion of the forecast area. Thermodynamic profiles indicate this precip will fall as all snow, especially along and north of I-95. Some light rain/snow showers (perhaps even mixed with sleet) may be possible south of I-95, mainly across far southern NJ, Wednesday evening. The most widespread snowfall should move through late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Snow should end from west to east before daybreak Thursday morning. Have adjusted the forecast to reflect this accordingly. A coating of snow (up to 2" in the far north) is expected generally along and north of I-78 Wednesday and Wednesday night for northern NJ and the Poconos, and perhaps a dusting in the Lehigh Valley. The aforementioned low will push out to sea Wednesday night and high pressure will return briefly on Thursday bringing fair weather and near average temperatures. Early Friday, another shortwave is forecast to move through the region in advance of a deepening trough across the Great Lakes. With high pressure still in place at the surface and thus cooler and relatively dry air, this feature has the potential to bring another quick round of light precipitation to our area late Thursday night and early Friday. As far a p-type, a mix of rain and snow appears probable possible across southern Delmarva and far southern NJ with all snow elsewhere. If the forecast trends a bit colder/drier, p-type may be all snow for the entire forecast area. It appears the highest QPF will be favored across Delmarva and far southern NJ, where surface conditions are not forecast to be favorable for notable accumulations. Any snow accumulations are currently expected to remain light with a coating of snow possible across the entire forecast area, but may reach advisory criteria in some locales if QPF trends wetter over the next few forecast cycles. Another round of rain is probable Saturday with a rapid cool down behind a passing cold front into Sunday. Guidance has trended a bit weaker and slower with the surface low associated with this system, so not expecting much in the way of a high wind threat as with the currently outgoing system. High pressure with origins from central Canada will push eastward across the northeastern US bring fair and colder weather Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR/BKN100-200. NW winds around 10 kt this morning, increasing to 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts in the afternoon. Tonight...VFR. BKN CIGs lowering to 7000-9000 feet. Winds become light and variable. Outlook... Wednesday and Wednesday night...Light snow with sub-VFR conditions probable north of I-95. Light winds. Moderate confidence. Thursday...VFR with N winds 5 to 10 kts. Moderate confidence. Thursday night through Friday night...Snow/rain showers with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. E winds 5 to 15 kts. Low confidence. Saturday and Saturday night...Widespread rain and clouds with conditions MVFR with IFR probable. Light southerly winds becoming west to northwest and increasing to 10-20 kts overnight. Low confidence. && .MARINE... Will cancel the Low Water Advisory for Delaware Bay as low tide has passed, and water levels will begin to rebound. SCA remains in effect for the NJ ocean waters until 7 am for the southern NJ ocean waters and will extend the SCA until 4 pm for the northern NJ ocean waters. Tuesday...Winds and seas decreasing later in the day. Wednesday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the entire outlook period. Seas are expected to build to 4-5 feet Friday into Saturday as the next storm system approaches. Wind may approach SCA criteria late Saturday night into Sunday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ452- 453. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ450- 451. && $$ Synopsis...Staarmann Near Term...MPS Short Term...MPS Long Term...Staarmann Aviation...MPS/Staarmann Marine...MPS/Staarmann