131 FXUS64 KMEG 260523 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1123 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 .UPDATE... Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 554 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019/ UPDATE...Evening Update. DISCUSSION... Forecast is in good shape. We should have at least one more dry day before showers return to the Midsouth...but even those are not expected to be very impactful. It will dip into the 30s tonight, but warm nicely, into the low to middle 60s. 30 PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 533 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019/ DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a cold front stretching from the East Coast back through Southern Alabama and Mississippi while a ridge of high pressure is located over portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This is resulting in mostly sunny skies despite some thin high level clouds moving across the Lower Mississippi Valley. As of 3 PM CST, temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 50s at most locations. Surface and upper level ridging will remain in place across the Lower Mississippi tonight and Tuesday resulting in another day of rain free weather. Short term models indicate the aforementioned front will begin to meander back north across the Lower Mississippi Valley resulting in a return of rain chances and perhaps a thunderstorm during the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. However, at this time we're not expecting much in the way of rainfall amounts as we saw with last week's excessive rainfall. Long term models indicate a mid-level shortwave embedded within northwest flow aloft will move across the region for the upcoming weekend into early next week. There is a potential for some wintry precipitation for Saturday night into Sunday. The operational GFS remains quicker than the Canadian and ECMWF solutions resulting in some timing issues and lower confidence. Nonetheless, this will continue to be monitored in subsequent forecasts as additional model runs arrive. CJC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF cycle VFR conditions will continue for much of the forecast period. Some patchy fog may develop overnight across portions of northeast Arkansas. Winds will be light and mainly from the southeast for much of the forecast period. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$