034 FXUS63 KMPX 252108 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 308 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Radar showing last vestiges of light snow exiting the southeast portion of the area this evening. We will likely see a mix of cloud cover through the night. Overnight lows dropping to the teens below zero over the far northeast CWA with single digit below zero reading expected elsewhere. Winds are expected to drop off this evening and most likely become calm as surface ridge moves east tonight. This will limit and need for wind chill headlines. Later tonight and Tuesday, another shot of snow is expected across central MN and west central Wisconsin as an upper trough approaches from the northwest. The GFS develops a weak surface trough as the system moves in Tuesday afternoon and should focus some layered FGEN along the northern tier of the our CWA. GEFS QPF is higher, generally 01.0 into to 0.20 inches over the area. We currently have SLR's in the 17-20:1 over the northern CWA. If we see this higher QPF, snow amounts could exceed the current forecast of 2 to 4 inches. Will have to monitor model trends into this evening. We did opt to issue a Winter Weather Advisory over mainly west central WI, along and north of Interstate 94 for Tuesday afternoon into evening. The remainder of the northern half of the CWA will likely see 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation as well through this period. We do expect the snow to end from west to east overnight Tuesday night. High temperatures will remain well below normal Tuesday, with readings ranging from 5 to 10 expected. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 A semi-zonal flow pattern persists into next weekend, which will lend the area susceptible to snow chances every 24-48 hours as weak shortwaves traverse through the flow regime. After the Tuesday-Tuesday night event, the next snowfall opportunity could arrive as early as Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS progs the arrival of another snow-generating wave, although this feature is absent on the ECMWF. While the GFS restricts accumulating snowfall mostly to southern MN, The GFS-FV3 and NAM also feature a widespread snowfall of several inches from southern into central MN. Have therefore increased POPS above what blended guidance yielded, and included 40-60 percent POPS for the southern two-thirds of the forecast area (highest toward the IA border). Despite the model differences for Thursday, better agreement exists regarding the arrival of a stronger system for Friday, so have higher confidence in a widespread plowable snowfall for Friday and Friday night. This system also packs a bit more of a punch, with stronger winds bringing the potential for blowing snow to west/south central MN on Saturday. In the wake of this system, cold Arctic high pressure settles in for the weekend, with the potential for record-setting cold temps. Forecast highs in the single digits and lows in the negative double digits for the weekend are 25 to 30 degrees below normal for the beginning of March. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys over far southern routes associated with FGEN forced band of snow. WIll continue to affect mainly KRWF/KMKT into the afternoon. May brush south of KMSP 20z-24z. System exits east this evening with some mid/high level clouds/VFR trend before next banded snow event moves into western MN mainly after 10z TUE. It should develop over much of the area with MVFR cigs to the south and IFR conditions with -sn developing over the northern CWA by 18z TUE. N-NW sfc winds less than 10kts becoming light NE-E less than 10kts into TUE. KMSP...Various mid/high level clouds through the night. We may be clipped by some flurries 20z-24Z period. Snow chances increase again by 16z-17z TUE with MVFR conditions/chance IFR for TUE afternoon. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Tue night...MVFR/-SN IFR PSBL. -sn ending late. Wind E 5-10 kts Wed...VFR. Wind NW at 10 kts. Thu...MVFR with -SN possible. SW winds of 5 to 10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 4 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ014>016-023-025-027-028. MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 4 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ053. && $$ SHORT TERM...DWE LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...DWE