299 FXUS63 KICT 250844 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 244 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 242 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 The main challenge in the short term will the cloud cover, and temperatures, especially in the areas where snow cover remains and is deep. Current satellite imagery indicates a progressive zonal flow over the region with the next weak wave rapidly approaching. This set up will allow southerly winds to return to the region. The southerly wind will allow for some weak WAA to occur. Normally this would allow temperatures to warm up a good amount. However, with the ground still very cold and snow cover to the north, this is likely to increase the cloud cover over the region today and keep temperatures in check. By Tuesday night and into Wednesday, the forecast becomes more complicated as a weak surface front will be coming through the region bringing the winds back around to the north and allow CAA to resume. Unfortunately, while the surface will have CAA, the mid levels will continue to have some rather strong WAA. This will create a rather strong warm nose in the mid levels. This set up will create a freezing drizzle set up. Uncertainty remains on this aspect as the NAM and ECMWF both indicate a very cold surface layer and is cold enough to bring the potential for some a mix of freezing drizzle and light snow. The freezing drizzle and light snow conditions are expected to move through the region likely be the heaviest over South Central and Southeast Kansas Wednesday night and into early Thursday morning before ending. Temperatures during this time are likely to remain well below normal for this time of year due to the surface CAA and northerly winds. Metzger .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 242 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 The extended range continues to look well below normal as GFS/GEM/ECMWF all indicate another round of cold weather to move into the region. Friday and into the Saturday looks to be the most interesting as all the models show a decent system to move through the region. This will bring the chance for light snow back into the forecast as temperature profiles look much more conducive to snow this time around. Confidence remains low on precipitation amounts, timing and intensity as none of the long range models agree on these aspects. The rest of the weekend looks quiet but very cold for this time of year. Metzger && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1113 PM CST Sun Feb 24 2019 Significant changes made relative to 00z TAFs for this update. RAP/NAM and to a lesser extent GFS all suggest sufficient moistening just off the deck for stratus to develop in the vicinity of KRSL and flirting with KSLN/KGBD. Timing is tricky, with models at face value showing moistening after 0900 UTC, but model output statistics suggesting much later in the morning. Hedged close to the later arrival based on trends/experience. This is result of snowpack aided, developing warm front with combo of upslope surface flow and south flow aloft. Anticipate stratus will develop and build down in the morning and could persist all day at KRSL given snow pack, unless south flow increases more than anticipated. At this point stratus appears more likely than fog, but visibility restrictions are possible at KRSL, if stratus build down persists into the late morning/early afternoon. With light east/southeast winds at the surface and strong south winds just off the deck, added some low level wind shear around daybreak at a couple of locations. By late afternoon and evening next surge of cold air will push south, spreading post frontal MVFR clouds south. -Howerton && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 242 AM CST Mon Feb 25 2019 Grassland Fire Danger indices have been curtailed some for today as temperatures have been reduced over much of the area. Some areas are likely to approach very high category along the Oklahoma and Kansas State line but only for a few hours this afternoon. The rest of the week, the Grassland Fire Danger looks to remain low to very low due to colder than normal temperatures and higher precipitation chances. Metzger && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 54 28 42 31 / 0 10 10 30 Hutchinson 51 22 35 26 / 0 10 10 20 Newton 51 24 38 27 / 0 10 10 30 ElDorado 53 28 43 31 / 0 10 20 30 Winfield-KWLD 56 32 48 37 / 0 10 10 30 Russell 28 10 24 18 / 0 10 10 10 Great Bend 40 13 27 20 / 0 10 10 10 Salina 38 16 29 22 / 0 10 10 20 McPherson 47 20 33 24 / 0 10 10 20 Coffeyville 56 33 55 40 / 0 0 10 20 Chanute 54 29 50 36 / 0 0 10 20 Iola 53 27 50 35 / 0 0 10 20 Parsons-KPPF 55 31 53 38 / 0 0 10 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ELM LONG TERM...ELM AVIATION...PJH FIRE WEATHER...ELM